Prof Peter Dixon - Researcher Profile

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Address

Centre of Policy Studies and the Impact Project
Building 11E, Clayton

Biography

A model career in economics 

How might a change in a tax or tariff affect a country’s economy? Providing a quantitative framework to give answers to such questions has been a key aspect of Professor Peter Dixon’s research since the 1970s, when he developed an economic model that was instrumental in Australia’s shift away from high tariffs. That model, called ORANI, proved so flexible it had widespread use in identifying winners and losers from any economic change. Peter, who was appointed a Sir John Monash Distinguished Professor in 2006, has taken his expertise to the world and now specialises in research and modelling for the United States.

ORANI belongs to the class of computable general equilibrium models, which use real economic data to predict an economy’s reaction to changes. Peter and colleagues at the Centre of Policy Studies subsequently developed a number of other such models, including MONASH and USAGE, which have also been widely applied in Australia and internationally.  Using them, Peter has shed rational light on diverse issues, from the effects of introducing a goods and services tax or a carbon tax to ways to protect a nascent US biofuel industry with tariffs. 

A particularly interesting project undertaken in recent years for the US Government was an assessment of the effects on the US economy of ending illegal immigration. Roughly 12 million people live illegally in the US, and 8 million of them work there, providing a largely unskilled but vital workforce. 

“The people who commissioned it really didn’t know what to think,” Peter says. “They wanted some way of quantifying the various effects. For example, they wanted to know what the immigrants were doing to employment prospects for low-skilled Americans.”

Peter found that getting rid of the illegal residents would shrink the economy, and although some jobs would initially open up at the unskilled end of the market, there would be fewer jobs all round. 

At the upper end, reduced demand would come to mean fewer opportunities. 

“Eventually, native-born Americans would end up, on average, with lower skilled jobs and lower wages.”

He recommended the introduction of a visa program, which would allow the US to control the numbers, and mean the immigrant workers would no longer have to break the law to get jobs. 

Employers would pay the visa tax, which would be set at the rate of the ‘coyote fee’, the amount immigrants currently pay to people smugglers. Employer outlay would remain the same, as the tax would come off the workers’ wages; the workers’ income would also remain the same, as they would be freed of the coyote fee. Only the smugglers would lose out.  

Peter and fellow researcher Maureen Rimmer presented their report on Capitol Hill in Washington, but as President Barack Obama fights other battles, immigration issues have been temporarily shelved.

Peter’s continuing work in the Centre of Policy Studies, which he directed from 1991 to 2004, includes research and modelling for five US government departments. 

He is also co-editing a volume on computable general equilibrium models in the Elsevier Handbook series. In a career hardly short of accolades – Peter is both a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and a Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia – this highly prestigious appointment is another highlight. 

Qualifications

PH D ECONOMICS
Institution: Harvard University
Year awarded: 1972

Publications

Books

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2002, Dynamic general equilibrium modelling for forecasting and policy. A practical guide and documentation of Monash, Elsevier, Amsterdam Netherlands.

Book Chapters

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M., Wittwer, G., 2012, The theory of TERM-H2O, in Economic Modeling of Water: The Australian CGE Experience, eds Glyn Wittwer, Springer, Dordrecht Netherlands, pp. 79-98.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2010, U.S. imports of low-skilled labor: Restrict or liberalize?, in New Developments in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Trade Policy, eds John Gilbert, Emerald Group Publishing, Bingley UK, pp. 103-151.

Brown, L., Harris, A.H., Picton, M.R., Thurecht, L., Yap, M., Harding, A., Dixon, P.B., Richardson, J.R.J., 2009, Linking microsimulation and macro-economic models to estimate the economic impact of chronic disease prevention, in New Frontiers in Microsimulation Modelling, eds Asghar Zaidi, Ann Harding and Paul Williamson, Ashgate, United Kingdom, pp. 527-554.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2005, Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia, in Trade theory, analytical models and development: essays in honour of Peter Lloyd, Volume I, eds Sisira Jayasuriya, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham UK, pp. 223-256.

Dixon, P.B., Parmenter, B.R., Rimmer, M.T., 2002, CGE models for practical policy analysis: the Australian experience, in Policy Evaluation with Computable General Equilibrium Models, eds A Fossati and W Wiegard, Routledge, London UK, pp. 56-82.

Dixon, P.B., Parmenter, B.R., Rimmer, M.T., 2000, Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Dynamic CGE Model of Australia, in Using Dynamic General Equilibrium Models for Policy Analysis, Elsevier, Amsterdam Netherlands, pp. 363-406.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 1999, Company taxes, Depreciation allowances and Capital gains taxes: some effects of Ralph, in Senate Finance and Public Administration References Committee, Inquiry into Business Taxation Reform, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra ACT Australia, pp. 87-104.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., Thomas, J.F., 1999, Potential growth in the Australian economy to 2020 with unlimited water availability, in Water and the Australian Economy, Technological Sciences & Engineering, Parkville Vic Australia, pp. 74-93.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., Thomas, J.F., 1999, Potential growth to 2020-21 subject to water constraints, in Water and the Australian Economy, Technogical sciences & Engineering, Parkville Vic Australia, pp. 94-109.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 1999, The Government's Tax Package: Short-Run Implications for Employment by Industry, Region, Occupation, Age & Gender, in Report of the Inquiry into the GST and a New Tax System, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra ACT Australia, pp. 146-155.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 1999, The Government's Tax Package: further Analysis based on the MONASH Model, in Senate Select Committee on a New Tax System, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra ACT Australia, pp. 169-247.

Menon, J., Dixon, P.B., 1998, Growth in Manufactures Trade: The Roles of Heckscher-Ohlin and Intraindustry Trade, in Trade and Growth, Allen & Unwin, St Leonards NSW Australia, pp. 73-89.

Journal Articles

Menzies, G., Bird, R., Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2011, Asset price regulators, unite: You have the macroeconomy to win and the microeconomic losses are small, Economic Record [P], vol 87, issue 278, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 449-464.

Dixon, P., Johnson, M., Rimmer, M., 2011, Economy-wide effects of reducing illegal immigrants in US employment, Contemporary Economic Policy [P], vol 29, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc, Hoboken USA, pp. 14-30.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., Wittwer, G., 2011, Saving the Southern Murray-Darling basin: The economic effects of a buyback of irrigation water, Economic Record [P], vol 87, issue 276, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 153-168.

Bird, R., Menzies, G., Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2011, The economic costs of US stock mispricing, Journal of Policy Modeling [P], vol 33, issue 4, Elsevier Inc, Philadelphia USA, pp. 552-567.

Dixon, P., Giesecke, J., Rimmer, M., Rose, A., 2011, The economic costs to the U.S. of closing its borders: A computable general equilibrium analysis, Defence And Peace Economics [P], vol 22, issue 1, Routledge, Abingdon UK, pp. 85-97.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2011, You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity, Economic Modelling [P], vol 28, issue 1-2, Elsevier BV, Amsterdam Netherlands, pp. 602-613.

Gehlhar, M., Somwaru, A., Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., Winston, R., 2010, Economywide implications from US bioenergy expansion, American Economic Review [P], vol 100, issue 2, American Economic Association, USA, pp. 172-177.

Dixon, P., Kauzi, G., Rimmer, M., 2010, Effects on the PNG economy of a major LNG project, Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy [P], vol 29, issue 2, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 143-155.

Dixon, P., Lee, B., Muehlenbeck, T., Rimmer, M., Rose, A., Verikios, G., 2010, Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management [P], vol 7, issue 1, Berkeley Electronic Press, USA, pp. 1-17.

Dixon, P., Madden, J., Rimmer, M., 2010, Linking national and multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models: The effects of an increase in award wage rates in Australia, Regional Studies [P], vol 44, issue 10, Routledge, UK, pp. 1369-1385.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2010, Optimal tariffs: Should Australia cut automotive tariffs unilaterally?, Economic Record [P], vol 86, issue 273, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 143-161.

Mai, Y., Adams, P., Dixon, P., Menon, J., 2010, The growth locomotive of the People's Republic of China: Macro and terms-of-trade impacts on neighboring countries, Asian Development Review [P], vol 27, issue 2, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, pp. 82-121.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., 2010, Validating a detailed, dynamic CGE model of the USA*, Economic Record [P], vol 86, issue s1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 22-34.

Dixon, P.B., 2009, Comments on the Productivity Commission's modelling of the economy-wide effects of future automotive assistance, Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy [P], vol 28, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 11-18.

Dixon, P.B., 2009, Towards improving the conduct of policy modelling: A response to Gropp, Jomini and Salerian, Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy [P], vol 28, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 25-26.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M., 2009, We need wage moderation, not just demand stimulation, Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy [P], vol 28, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia, Richmond Vic Australia, pp. 63-64.

Giesecke, J.A., Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M., 2008, Regional macroeconomic outcomes under alternative arrangements for the financing of public infrastructure, Papers in Regional Science, vol 87, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc, USA, pp. 3-31.

Dixon, P.B., 2008, Trade policy in Australia and the development of computable general equilibrium modeling, Journal of Economic Integration, vol 23, issue 3, Sejong University, Republic of Korea, pp. 605-630.

Dixon, P.B., Bleazby, M.T., Tsigas, M.E., 2007, Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas, Papers in Regional Science, vol 86, issue 1, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc, USA, pp. 31-55.

Dixon, P.B., Osborne, S., Bleazby, M.T., 2007, The economy-wide effects in the United States of replacing crude petroleum with biomass, Energy & Environment, vol 18, issue 6, Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd, UK, pp. 709-722.

Dixon, P.B., 2006, Inframarginal economics: an outsider's view, Economic Papers, vol 25, issue 2, Economic Society of Australia, St. Ives NSW Australia, pp. 177-195.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2006, Response to Richard Tol, Energy & Environment, vol 17, issue 4, Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd, UK, pp. 633-635.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2006, The displacement effect of labour-market programs: MONASH analysis, The Economic Record, vol 82, issue Special, Blackwell Publishing Asia, Carlton Vic Australia, pp. S26-S40.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2005, Analysing convergence with a multi-country computable general equilibrium model: PPP versus MER, Energy & Environment, vol 16, issue 6, Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd, UK, pp. 901-921.

Dixon, P.B., Picton, M.R., Rimmer, M.T., 2005, Efficiency effects of changes in Commonwealth grants to the states: a CGE analysis, Australian Economic Papers, vol 44, issue 1, Blackwell Publishing Asia, Australia, pp. 82-104.

Dixon, P.B., Pearson, K.R., Picton, M.R., Rimmer, M.T., 2005, Rational expectations for large CGE models: a practical algorithm and a policy application, Economic Modelling, vol 22, issue 6, Elsevier BV, The Netherlands, pp. 1001-1019.

Dixon, P.B., Wittwer, G., 2004, Forecasting the economic impact of an industrial stoppage using a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, vol 7, issue 1, The Centre for Labour Market Research, Crawley WA Australia, pp. 39-51.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2004, Measuring contributions to the Australian economy: the benefits of a fast-growing motor vehicle and parts industry, Economic Papers, vol 23, issue 1, The Economic Society of Australia, Australia, pp. 73-87.

Dixon, P.B., Picton, M.R., Rimmer, M.T., 2004, Payroll taxes: thresholds, firm sizes, dead-weight losses and Commonwealth Grants Commission funding, The Economic Record, vol 80, issue 250, Blackwell Publishing Asia, Sydney NSW Australia, pp. 289-301.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2004, The US economy from 1992 to 1998: results from a detailed CGE model, The Economic Record, vol 80, issue Special, Blackwell Publishing Asia, Carlton Vic Australia, pp. 13-23.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2003, A new specification of labour supply in the MONASH model with an illustrative application, The Australian Economic Review, vol 36, issue 1, Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, Carlton South Vic Australia, pp. 22-40.

Dixon, P.B., Picton, M., Rimmer, M.T., 2002, Efficiency effects of inter-government financial transfers in Australia, The Australian Economic Review, vol 35, issue 3, Blackwell Publishing, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 304-315.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2001, A Wage - Tax Policy to Increase Employment, Australian Economic Review, vol 34, issue 1, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, Oxford UK, pp. 64-80.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2001, The September 11 Shock to Tourism and the Australian Economy from 2001-02 to 2003-04, Australian Bulletin of Labour, vol 27, issue 4, National Institute of Labour Studies Inc, Flinders University Adelaide SA, pp. 241-257.

Dixon, P.B., Menon, J., Rimmer, M.T., 2000, Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade, Australian Economic Papers, vol 39 issue 1, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, Oxford UK, pp. 33-55.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., McDonald, D., Rimmer, M.T., 2000, The Exchange Rate Puzzle and Forecasts for the Australian Economy from 2000-01 to 2004-05, Australian Bulletin of Labour, vol 26 issue 4, National Institute of Labour Studies, Adelaide SA Australia, pp. 257-278.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 2000, The Government/Democrats' Package of Changes in Indirect Taxes, The Australian Journal of Agricultural & Resource Economics, vol 44 issue 1, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, Oxford UK, pp. 147-158.

Johnson, D., Dixon, P.B., 1999, Australian Poverty Quantified by a Family-Based Poverty Index, Economic Record, vol 75,229, Economic Society of Australia, Vic Australia, pp. 103-114.

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M.T., 1999, Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis, The Australian Economic Review, vol 32,4, Blackwell, Oxford UK, pp. 327-348.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., McDonald, D., Meagher, G.A., Rimmer, M.T., 1999, Employment in Australia: Occupations, Threats & Opportunities, Australian Bulletin of Labour, vol 25,4, National Institute of Labour Studies Incorporated, Adelaide SA Australia, pp. 283-305.

Dixon, P.B., 1998, A Theoretical Analysis of the Thai Economic Crisis, Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics, vol 10, 1, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Thailand, pp. 1-13.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., 1997, Generating Detailed Commodity Forecasts from a CGE Model, International Journal of Forecasting, vol 13, North Holland - Elsevier Science, Amsterdam Netherlands, pp. 223-236.

Menon, J., Dixon, P.B., 1997, Intra-industry versus inter-industry trade: relevance for adjustment costs, Weltwirtschafthiches Archiv, vol 133, J.C.B. Mohor (Paul Siebeck), Tubingen, pp. 164-169.

Dixon, P.B., McDonald, D., 1997, Macroeconomic aspects of the Commonwealth Budget for 1997-1998, Australian Bulletin of Labour, vol 23, National Institute of Labour Studies, Adelaide SA Australia, pp. 133-142.

Menon, J., Dixon, P.B., 1997, Measures of Intra-industry trade as indicators of Adjustment Costs, Economic Record, vol 73, The Economic Society of Australia, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 233-237.

Conference Proceedings

Dixon, P.B., 1998, Comment on "Economies of Scale and Imperfect Competition in an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy", Increasing Returns and Economic Analysis, Clayton, Victoria 7-8 September 1995, Macmillan Press Ltd & St Martin's Press Inc, Great Britain New York, pp. 335-337.

Dixon, P.B., McDonald, D., 1998, Economic Arguments for Public Funding of Research: The Case of Economic Modelling Statistics, Statistics, Science and Public Policy, Herstmonceux Castle, Hailsham, United Kingdom, Queen's University, Canada, pp. 107-111.

Other

Dixon, P.B., Rimmer, M., 2009, Restriction or Legalization? Measuring the Economic Benefits of Immigration Reform, A Policy Studies - Policy Analysis Paper - No. 40, The Cato Institute, USA.

Dixon, P.B., Madden, J., Rimmer, M.T., 2005, The effects on the Australian economy of a sustained increase in award wage rates: Results from the MONASH model, Monash University, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 1-103.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., 1998, Australian Regions and Industries Forecasted to 2005 Part I Economic & Industry Forecasts, Invited article in Commercial Magazine - National Business Magazine Vol. 8, No. 7, National Business Magazine Sydney NSW Australia.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., 1998, Australian Regions and Industries Forecasted to 2005 Part II Forecasts of States and Territories, Invited article in Commercial Magazine - National Business Magazine Vol 8, No. 8, National Business Magazine Sydney NSW Australia.

Adams, P.D., Dixon, P.B., 1998, Australian Regions and Industries Forecasted to 2005 Part III Forecasts for 57 States & Regions, Invited Article in Commercial Magazine - National Business Magazine Vol. 8, No. 9, National Business Magazine Sydney NSW Australia.

Postgraduate Research Supervisions

Current Supervision

Program of Study:
(DOCTORATE BY RESEARCH).
Thesis Title:
Resource utilization impact on economic growth.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Bleazby, M (Associate).

Completed Supervision

Student:
Bohlmann, H.
Program of Study:
Labour and migration policy in South Africa. (PHD) 2011.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Joint), Madden, J (Joint-Co).
Student:
Ho, T.
Program of Study:
A TARIFF INCREASE WITH AN OFFSETTING REDUCTION IN COMSUMPTION TAXES: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS FOR VIETNAM. (PHD) 2000.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main).
Student:
Hoque, M.
Program of Study:
A computable general equilibrium model of Bangladesh for analysis of policy reforms. (PHD) 2006.
Supervisors:
Madden, J (Main), Dixon, P (Associate).
Student:
Kauzi, G.
Program of Study:
FORECASTS AND THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STUDY FOR PAPUA NEW GUINEA. (PHD) 2003.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Horridge, M (Associate).
Student:
Li, B.
Program of Study:
RESEARCH TITLE UNAVAILABLE. (Masters) 2000.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main).
Student:
Narayan, P.
Program of Study:
AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF TOURISM DEMAND AND A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF TOURISM: THE CASE OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. (PHD) 2003.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Adams, P (Associate), Vahid-Araghi, F (Associate).
Student:
Narayan, S.
Program of Study:
The dynamics of the current account: the case of the OECD countries. (PHD) 2008.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Joint-Co), Smyth, R (Joint).
Student:
Ng, J.
Program of Study:
A dynamic general equilibrium model approach for Malaysia: labour market and trade. (PHD) 2012.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Bleazby, M (Associate).
Student:
Otim, S.
Program of Study:
INVENTORIES AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY. (PHD) 2000.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Parmenter, B (Associate).
Student:
Peng, X.
Program of Study:
POPULATION AGEING, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POPULATION POLICY OPTIONS IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUALIBRIUM ANALYSIS.. (PHD) 2005.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Mai, Y (Associate), Ng, Y (Associate).
Student:
Schmidt, G.
Program of Study:
DYNAMICS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY AND RELATED ISSUES: A CASE STUDY OF THE "ROMER MODEL". (PHD) 2001.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main), Parmenter, B (Associate).
Student:
Winston, A.
Program of Study:
BUSINESS TAXATION, CORPORATE FINANCE AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION. (PHD) 2004.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main).
Student:
Xiao, J.
Program of Study:
A dynamic financial applied general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. (PHD) 2009.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Joint), Wittwer, G (Joint-Co).
Student:
Yamamoto, S.
Program of Study:
The deregulation of the Japanese trade industry. (Masters) 2003.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Main).
Student:
Yamamoto, S.
Program of Study:
The development and application of ORANIG-RD for Japan: the Japanese economy from 2001 to 2004. (PHD) 2007.
Supervisors:
Dixon, P (Joint-Co), Horridge, M (Joint).