EARTH, FIRE AND WATER
Huge fires like the devastating ones on Black Saturday or Ash Wednesday cannot be stopped, says Professor Michael Reeder. But the weather conditions necessary for such fires can be forecast. Every major fire in southern Australia is connected to highly predictable atmospheric processes. We can’t know when or where a spark will ignite a fire but once it gets going, its behaviour is also largely predictable. The more we understand these processes, the better we can deal with the fires.
Bushfires are only one of the many aspects of atmospheric science that draw Professor Reeder’s attention. His research takes him from relatively small and local aspects of weather, such as cold fronts, hurricanes, cyclones and thunderstorms, to the planetary-scale structures of the atmosphere.
That such work is firmly grounded in the real world is part of the attraction.
“I was interested in mathematics and physics – and especially in fluid dynamics, a classical area of applied mathematics – and I realised that you could use this stuff to explain what you see out there,” Michael says.
His bushfire research is largely funded by the Australian Research Council, which also backs his work on changing rainfall patterns.
Southern areas of Australia have become drier, especially in the west. But the country as a whole is getting wetter, with the north-west of Western Australia feeling the effects of rapidly increasing rain.
”Trying to disentangle how this all works is a prerequisite for understanding how rainfall will change in the future,” Michael says.
The first question is: what are the mechanisms that control the rainfall? The next step is finding out why there have been changes.
More questions are raised by research projects on hurricanes and tropical thunderstorms, funded by the United States Navy and the US Department of Energy respectively. Why do hurricanes rapidly intensify? What part do tropical thunderstorms play in the radiation budget of the atmosphere?
In the search for answers, the central goal is always finding out how the world works. It can be in unexpected ways. Fires, for example, are not only a consequence of atmospheric changes – they also cause them. The Canberra bushfires of 2003 generated enough water (a by-product of burning wood or cellulose) to change the humidity of the lower levels of the atmosphere. The dry environment became a tropical one that spawned huge thunderstorms and at least one tornado.
Knowledge of how such things happen can be used to make forecasting more accurate, a theme that runs through much of Michael’s research. This kind of low-level moistening by large bushfires is not yet something that can be predicted accurately, although the basic processes can be modelled reasonably well.
“These are the forecasts of the future,” he says. ”I am interested in these problems of how weather and fires interact.”
Advances in climate modelling and weather predictions should not be underestimated. “That you can write down a set of equations that pretty accurately represents what’s going on is a massive achievement,” Michael says. “It’s one of the big, big scientific achievements of the second half of the 20th century.”
Wong, T., Ross, A., Beringer, J., Deletic, A., Fletcher, T., Gangadharan, L., Gernjak, W., Jakob, C., O'Loan, T., Reeder, M., Tapper, N., walsh, c., 2012, Stormwater Management in a Water Sensitive City: Blueprint 2012, The Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Australia.
Wong, T., Ross, A., Beringer, J., Brown, R., Chaudhri, V., Deletic, A., Fletcher, T., Gernjak, W., Hodyl, L., Jakob, C., Reeder, M., Tapper, N., Walsh, C., 2011, Stormwater Management in a Water Sensitive City: Blueprint 2011, The Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Monash University, Australia.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., 1999, Convectively-generated gravity waves and their effect on the cloud environment, Dept of Maths & Stats, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Clark, T., Coen, J., Radke, L., Reeder, M.J., Packham, D., 1999, Coupled atmosphere-fire dynamics, Dept of Maths & Stats, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., Clark, T., 1999, Numereical modelling of gravity wave generation by deep tropical convection, Dept of Maths & Stats, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., Morton, B.R., Clark, T., 1999, Obervations and numerical modelling of mountain waves over the Southern Alps of New Zealand, Dept of Maths & Stats, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., Deslandes, R., Tapper, N.J., Mills, G., 1999, Subtropical fronts observed during the 1996 Central Australian fronts experiment, Dept of Maths & Stats, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Reeder, M.J., Christie, D.R., 1997, Four nonlinear wve disturbances observed simultaneously over northern Queensland, Australia, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Menhofer, A., Smith, R.K., Reeder, M.J., Christie, D.R., 1997, 'Morning Glory' disturbances and the environment in which they propagate, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Reeder, M.J., Griffiths, M., 1997, Numerical modelling of inertia-gravity wave emission by fronts and jets, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Griffiths, M., Reeder, M.J., Low, D.J., Vincent, R.A., 1997, Observations of a cut-off low over southern Australia, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., 1997, Southern Hemisphere Mesoscale Meteorology, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Menhofer, A., Smith, R.K., Reeder, M.J., Christie, D.R., 1997, The bore-like character of three Morning Glories observed during the Central Australian Fronts experiment, Monash University, Clayton Vic Australia.
Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., 1998, Mesoscale Meteorology, in Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, American Meteorological Society, Bostin USA, pp. 201-242.
Reeder, M.J., Griffiths, M., 1997, Numerical modellling of inertia-gravity wave emission by fronts and jets, in Gravity Wave Processes: Their Parameterization in Global Climate Models, Springer-Verlag, Germany, pp. 137-152.
Berry, G.J., Reeder, M.J., Jakob, C., 2012, Coherent synoptic disturbances in the Australian monsoon, Journal Of Climate [P], vol 25, issue 24, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 8409-8421.
Gallant, A.J.E., Reeder, M.J., Risbey, J., Hennessy, K.J., 2012, The characteristics of seasonal-scale droughts in Australia, 1911-2009, International Journal Of Climatology [P], Wiley.
Engel, C.B., Lane, T.P., Reeder, M.J., Rezny, M., 2012, The meteorology of Black Saturday, Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [P], Royal Meteorological Society.
Berry, G., Reeder, M., Jakob, C., 2011, A global climatology of atmospheric fronts, Geophysical Research Letters [P], vol 38, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, US, pp. 1-5.
Nguyen, C., Reeder, M., Davidson, N., Smith, R., Montgomery, M., 2011, Inner-core vacillation cycles during the intensification of Hurricane Katrina, Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [P], vol 137, issue 657, Wiley-Blackwell, USA, pp. 829-844.
Berry, G., Reeder, M., Jakob, C., 2011, Physical mechanisms regulating summertime rainfall over Northwestern Australia, Journal Of Climate [P], vol 24, issue 14, American Meteorological Society, Boston, US, pp. 3705-3717.
Berry, G., Jakob, C., Reeder, M., 2011, Recent global trends in atmospheric fronts, Geophysical Research Letters [P], vol 38, issue L21812, American Geophysical Union, USA, pp. 1-6.
Govekar, P., Jakob, C., Reeder, M., Haynes, J., 2011, The three-dimensional distribution of clouds around Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters [P], vol 38, issue L21805, American Geophysical Union, USA, pp. 1-6.
Nudelman, I., Smith, R., Reeder, M., 2010, A climatology of pressure jumps around the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Journal [P], vol 60, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Australia, pp. 91-101.
Muir, L., Reeder, M., 2010, Idealized modelling of landfalling cold fronts, Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [P], vol 136, issue 653, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Sussex UK, pp. 2147-2161.
Pope, M., Jakob, C., Reeder, M.J., 2009, Objective classification of tropical mesoscale convective systems, Journal Of Climate [P], vol 22, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 5797-5808.
Pope, M., Jakob, C., Reeder, M.J., 2009, Regimes of the North Australian wet season, Journal Of Climate [P], vol 22, issue 24, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 6699-6715.
Cunningham, P., Reeder, M.J., 2009, Severe convective storms initiated by intense wildfires: Numerical simulations of pyro-convection and pyro-tornadogenesis, Geophysical Research Letters [P], vol 36, American Geophysical Union, Washington USA, pp. L12812-1-L12812-5.
Thomsen, G., Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., 2009, The diurnal evolution of cold fronts in the Australian subtropics, Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [P], vol 135, issue 639, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, West Sussex UK, pp. 395-411.
Arnup, S.J., Reeder, M.J., 2009, The structure and evolution of the northern Australian dryline, Australian Meteorological Magazine [P], vol 58, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 215-231.
Pope, M.H., Jakob, C., Reeder, M.J., 2008, Convective system of the north Australian monsoon, Journal of Climate, vol 21, issue 19, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 5091-5112.
Davidson, N.E., Tory, K.J., Reeder, M.J., Drosdowsky, W., 2007, Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon: Reanalysis diagnostics and idealized dry simulations, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 64, issue 10, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 3475-3498.
Weinzierl, B., Smith, R.K., Reeder, M.J., Jackson, G.E., 2007, MesoLAPS predictions of low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia, Weather and Forecasting, vol 22, issue 4, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 910-927.
Arnup, S.J., Reeder, M.J., 2007, The diurnal and seasonal variation of the Northern Australian Dryline, Monthly Weather Review, vol 135, issue 8, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 2995-3008.
Goler, R.A., Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., Richter, H., Arnup, S.J., Keenan, T., May, P., Hacker, J.M., 2006, Low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia. Part I: The north Australian cloud line, Monthly Weather Review, vol 134, issue 11, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 3092-3108.
Smith, R.K., Reeder, M.J., May, P.T., Richter, H.M., 2006, Low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia. Part II: Southerly disturbances, Monthly Weather Review, vol 134, issue 11, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 3109-3124.
Clark, T.L., Reeder, M.J., Griffiths, M., Packham, D.R., Krusel, N., 2005, Infrared observations and numerical modelling of grassland fires in the Northern Territory, Australia, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol 88, issue 3-4, Springer-Verlag, Wein Austria, pp. 193-201.
Spengler, T., Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., 2005, The dynamics of heat lows in simple background flows, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 131, issue 612, Royal Meteorological Society, Berkshire UK, pp. 3147-3165.
Tory, K.J., Reeder, M.J., 2005, The effect of the continental boundary layer on the dynamics of fronts in a 2D model of baroclinic instability. I: An insulated lower surface, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 131, Royal Meteorological Society, Berkshire UK, pp. 2389-2408.
Reeder, M.J., Tory, K.J., 2005, The effect of the continental boundary layer on the dynamics of fronts in a 2D model of baroclinic instability. II: Surface heating and cooling, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 131, issue 610, Royal Meteorological Society, Berkshire UK, pp. 2409-2429.
Goler, R.A., Reeder, M.J., 2004, The generation of the morning glory, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 61, issue 12, American Meteorological Society, USA, pp. 1360-1376.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., Guest, F.M., 2003, Convectively generated gravity waves observed from radiosonde data taken during MCTEX, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 129, issue Part A No. 590, Royal Meteorological Society, Reading UK, pp. 1731-1740.
Clark, T.L., Griffiths, M., Reeder, M.J., Latham, D., 2003, Numerical simulations of grassland fires in the Northern Territory, Australia: A new subgrid-scale fire parameterization, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 108, issue D18, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC USA, pp. 14-1-14-15.
Zehnder, J.A., Reeder, M.J., 2003, Time-dependent response of the tropical atmosphere to a fixed sea surface temperature anomaly, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol 108, issue D20, American Geophysical Union, Washing DC USA, pp. 5-1-5-16.
Reeder, M.J., Lane, T., Guest, F.M., Wratt, D., 2003, Two southerly changes observed during the New Zealand Southern Alps Experiment (SALPEX), Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 52, issue 4, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberrra ACT Australia, pp. 251-258.
Preissler, M., Reeder, M.J., Smith, R., 2002, A case study of a heat low over central Australia, The Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 51, issue 3, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 155-164.
Guest, F.M., Reeder, M.J., Chane-Ming, F., 2002, Analyses of inertia-gravity waves in upper-air soundings made from Macquarie Island, The Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 51, issue 2, Thr Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 107-115.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., 2001, Convectively generated gravity waves and their effect on the cloud environment, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 58, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 2427-2440.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., 2001, Modelling the generation of gravity waves by a maritime continent thunderstorm, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 127, Royal Meteorological Society, Reading UK, pp. 2705-2724.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., Clark, T., 2001, Numerical modeling of gravity wave generation by deep tropical convection, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol 58, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 1249-1274.
Guest, F.M., Reeder, M.J., Marks, C., Karoly, D.J., 2000, Inertia-gravity waves observed in the lower stratosphere over Macquarie Island, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol 57 issue 5, American Meteorological Society, Boston USA, pp. 737-752.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., Morton, B.R., Clark, T., 2000, Observations and numerical modelling of mountain waves over the Southern Alps of New Zealand, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 126 issue 569, Royal Meteorological Society, Reading UK, pp. 2765-2788.
Reeder, M.J., Smith, R.K., Deslandes, R., Tapper, N.J., Mills, G., 2000, Subtropical Cold Fronts Observed during the 1996 Central Australian Fronts Experiment, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 49 issue 3, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Soc., Canberra ACT Australia, pp. 181-200.
Reeder, M.J., Adams, N., Lane, T., 1999, Radiosonde observations of partially trapped Lee waves over Tasmania, Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, vol 104 issue 014, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC USA, pp. 16719-16727.
Deslandes, R., Reeder, M.J., Mills, G., 1999, Synoptic analyses of a subtropical cold front observed during the 1991 Central Australian Fronts Experiment, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol 48 issue 2, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Vic Australia, pp. 87-110.
Reeder, M.J., Christie, D.R., 1998, Four large-amplitude wave families observed simultaneously over northern Queensland, Australia, Weather, vol 53, issue 5, Royal Meteorological Society, Reading UK, pp. 134-140.
Griffiths, M., Reeder, M.J., Low, D.J., Vincent, R.A., 1998, Observations of a cut-off low over southern Australia, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 124 no 548, Royal Meteorological Society, Reading UK, pp. 1109-1132.
Zehnder, J., Reeder, M.J., 1997, Barotropic vortex motion near large-scale orography: sensitivity to orographic and environmental parameters, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol 64, Springer-Verlag, Austria, pp. 1-19.
Dengler, K., Reeder, M.J., 1997, The effects of convection and baroclinicity on the motion of tropical-cyclone-like vortices, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol 123, Royal Meteorological Society, UK, pp. 699-725.
Raut, B., de la Fuente, L., Seed, A., Jakob, C., Reeder, M.J., 2012, Application of a space-time stochastic model for downscaling future rainfall projections, Proceedings of the Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium 2012, 19 November 2012 to 22 November 2012, Engineers Australia, ACT Australia, pp. 579-586.
Lane, T., Reeder, M.J., 1999, Gravity wave generation in a high-resolution model of deep convection, IUGG99 Birmingham Abstracts, Birmingham UK 19-24 July 1999, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Birmingham UK, p. A268.
Reeder, M.J., 1999, Inertia-gravity wave emmision from fronts, Sixth National Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Conference, Canberra, Australia 8-11 February 1999, AMOS, Melbourne Vic Australia, p. 68.
Guest, F.M., Reeder, M.J., Marks, C.J., Karoly, D.J., 1999, Inertia-gravity waves observed in the lower stratosphere over Macquarie Island, Sixth National Ausrtalian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Conference, Canberra Australia 8-11 February 1999, AMOS, Melbourne Vic Australia, p. 23.
Reeder, M.J., Leslie, L., 1997, 1997 Modelling and observations of a morning glory observed at Rockhampton, APOC-AMOS '97 Abstracts, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW Australia.
Guest, F.M., Reeder, M.J., Marks, C.J., Karoly, D.J., 1997, Analyses of stratospheric gravity waves over Macquarie Island, Proceedings of the First SPARC General Assembly, SPARC, France.
Reeder, M.J., 1997, Fronts and bores in the Australian subtropics, Joint Assemblies of IAMAS and IAPSO. Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere, Forces for Change, Local Organizing Committee, 1997 Joint Assemblies, Melbourne Vic Australia.
Roff, G.L., Karoly, D.J., Reeder, M.J., Lane, T., 1997, Gravity wave activity associated with tropical convection detected in Toga Coare sounding data, Proceedings of the First SPARC General Assembly, SPARC, France.
Reeder, M.J., Leslie, L., 1997, Modelling and Observations of a Morning Glory Observed at Rockhampton, APOC-AMOS '97, Macquarie University, Australia.
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