Publications

2008

• Alexander, L.V., and J.M. Arblaster, 2008: Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. Int. J. Climatol., (accepted).
• Allan, R, Tett, S. and Alexander, L.V., 2008: Fluctuations in autumn-winter severe storms over the British Isles: 1920 to present. Int. J. Climatol., (in review).
• Sarah Burns, Nigel Tapper, David Packham, Ben Orlove, and Neville Nicholls, 2008: The relationship between fire activity, rainfall and ENSO indices in northern Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire (in press).
• Tryhorn, L., A.H. Lynch, R. Abramson and K. Parkyn, 2008: On the Mechanisms Driving Post-Fire Flash Floods: A Case Study. Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press).
• Scaife, A.A., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V., Moberg, A. and Knight J.R., 2008: European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 21, 72-83.
• Lynch, A.H., L. Tryhorn, and R. Abramson, 2007: Working at the boundary: facilitating interdisciplinarity in climate change adaptation research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89, 169-179.
• Walsh, K., D. Karoly and N. Nicholls, 2008: The detection and attribution of climate change effects on tropical cyclones. In: Hurricanes and Climate, Springer (in press).
• Lynch, A.H., L.R. Lestak, P. Uotila, E.N. Cassano, L. Xie, 2008: A factorial analysis of storm surge flooding in Barrow, Alaska. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 898-912.
• Wyser, K., C.G. Jones, P. Du, E. Girard, U. Willen, J. Cassano, J. H. Christensen, J. A. Curry, K. Dethloff, J.-E. Haugen, D. Jacob, M. Koltzow, R. Laprise, A. Lynch, S. Pfeifer, A. Rinke, M. Serreze, M. J. Shaw, M. Tjernström and M. Zagar, 2008: An Evaluation of Arctic Cloud and Radiation processes during the SHEBA year: Simulation results from eight Arctic Regional Climate Models. Climate Dynamics 30, 203-223.

2007

• Alexander, L.V., P. Hope, D. Collins, B. Trewin, A. Lynch and N. Nicholls, 2007: Trends in Australia's climate means and extremes: a global context. Aust. Met. Mag, 56, 1-18.
• Arnup, S. J. and M. J. Reeder, 2007: The diurnal and seasonal variation of airmass boundaries in the Australian region, Mon. Wea. Rev, (Revised and resubmitted).
• Brown, J., M. Collins, A. Tudhope and T. Toniazzo, 2007: Modelling mid-Holocene tropical climate and ENSO variability: Towards constraining predictions of future change with palaeo-data, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0270-9.
• Cassano, J. J.,Uotila, P., A.H. Lynch and E.N. Cassano, 2007: Predicted Changes in Synoptic Forcing of Net Precipitation in Large Arctic River Basins During the 21st Century, J. Geophys. Res. - Biogeosciences, DOI:10.1029/2006JG000332.
• Davidson, N. E., K. J. Tory, M. J. Reeder and W. L. Drosdowsky, 2007: Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon: Reanalysis, diagnostics and idealized dry simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., (Revised and resubmitted).
• Gallucci, J., L. Tryhorn, A. Lynch and K. Parkyn, 2007: On the meteorological and hydrological mechanisms resulting in the 2003 post-fire flood event in Alpine Shire, Victoria. Aust. Met. Mag. (in review).
• Huntington, H.P., R. Brunner, L.C. Hamilton, A. Lynch, C. Nicolson, A.E.J. Ogilvie and A. Voinov, 2007: Human Dimensions of the Arctic System: Approaches and Insights from HARC. Global Environmental Change, (in review).
• Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. P. Gillett, Y. Luo, J. A. Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J. E. Penner and P. A. Stott, 2007: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Kiktev, D., Caesar, J., Alexander, L., Shiogama, H. and Collier, M., 2007: Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10702, doi:10.1029/2007GL029539.
• Lynch, A.H., D. Abramson, K. Görgen, J. Beringer and P. Uotila, 2007: The influence of savanna fire on Australian monsoon season precipitation and circulation as simulated using a distributed computing environment. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L20801, doi:10.1029/2007GL030879.
• Lynch, A.H,. J. Beringer, P. Kershaw, A. Marshall, S. Mooney, N. Tapper, C. Turney and S. van der Kaars, 2007: Using the Palaeorecord to Evaluate Climate and Fire Interactions in Australia. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 215-239, doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.35.092006.145055.
• Lynch, A.H., R.D. Brunner, 2007: The importance of context in climate change impacts assessment: Lessons from Barrow, Alaska. Climatic Change 82, 93-111. DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9165-8.
• Marshall, A., A.H. Lynch, and K. Görgen, 2007: A model intercomparison study of the Australian summer monsoon. Part II: Variability at intraseasonal and interannual timescales Aust. Met. Mag. (in review).
• Marshall, A., A.H. Lynch, and K. Görgen, 2007: A model intercomparison study of the Australian summer monsoon. Part I: General Characteristics Aust. Met. Mag. (in review).
• Nicholls, N. and L. Alexander, 2007: Has the climate become more variable or extreme? Progress 1992-2006. Progress in Physical Geography, 31(1), pp. 77-87, DOI: 10.1177/0309133307073885.
• Nicholls, N. and Lucas, C., 2007: Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: Relationships with climate and predictability. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16, 540-546.
• Nicholls, N., Skinner, C., Loughnan, M., and Tapper, N., 2007: A simple heat alert system for Melbourne, Australia. Int J. Biometeorology DOI:10.1007/s00484-007-0132-5.
• Power, S., and Nicholls, N., 2007: Temperature variability in a changing climate. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56, 105-110.
• Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R. B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N. L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B. J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T. F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R. A. Wood and D. Wratt, 2007: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Thomsen, G. L., M. J. Reeder and R. K. Smith, 2007: Modelling the subtropical cold fronts and bores observed during the Central Australian Fronts Experiment, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., (Submitted).
• Thompson, R. and Clark, R. M., 2007: Is spring starting earlier?, The Holocene, (submitted).
• Uotila, P., A.H. Lynch, J.J. Cassano and R.I. Cullather, 2007: Changes in Antarctic net precipitation in the 21st century based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC model scenarios, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmospheres, 112, D10107, DOI:10.1029/2006JD007482.
• Weinzierl, B., R. K. Smith, M. J. Reeder and G. E. Jackson, 2007: Low-level convergence lines over northern Australia. III. MesoLaps predictions, Wea. Forecasting, (Accepted).

2006

• Brown, J., M. Collins and A. Tudhope, 2006: Coupled model simulations of mid-Holocene ENSO and comparisons with coral oxygen isotope records, Advances in Geosciences, 6, 29-33.
• Brown, J., I. Simmonds, and D. Noone, 2006: Modeling delta-18O in tropical precipitation and the surface ocean for present-day climate, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005611.
• Cassano, E.N., A.H. Lynch, J.J. Cassano, and M.R. Koslow 2006: Classification of synoptic patterns in the western Arctic associated with extreme events at Barrow, Alaska, USA. Climate Research, 30(2), 83-97.
• Cassano, J.J., P. Uotila, A.H. Lynch, A. 2006: Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries, Part 1: Arctic. Int. J. of Climatol.,, 26, 8, 1027-1049.
• Cernusak, L.A., Hutley, L.B., Beringer, J. and Tapper, N.J. 2006: Stem and leaf gas exchange and their responses to fire in a north- Australian tropical savanna, Plant, Cell and Environment, 29, 632–646.
• Goler, R., M. J. Reeder, R. K. Smith, S. Arnup, H. Richter, T. Keenan and P. May. 2006: Low-level convergence lines over northern Australia. I. Northeasterly disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 3092--3108.
• Görgen, K., A.H. Lynch, A.G. Marshall, and J. Beringer, 2006: The impact of abrupt land cover changes by savanna fire on northern Australian climate. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006860.
• Hope, P.K., W. Drosdowsky, N. Nicholls, 2006: Shifts in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia, Clim. Dyn., 26, 751-764.
• Li, H., N. Tapper, N. Dean, M. Barbetti, K. Sivasithamparam, 2006:  Enhanced pathogenicity of Leptosphaeria maculans pycnidiospores from paired co-inoculation of Brassica napus cotyledons with ascospores, Ann. of Botany, 97, 1151-1156.
• Lynch, A.H., P. Uotila, J.J. Cassano, 2006: Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries, Part 2: Antarctic. Int. J. of Climatol., 26, 9, 1181-1199.
• Marshall, A.G., A.H. Lynch 2006: Time slice analysis of the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. J. of Quaternary Sci., Vol 21 pp. 789-801.
• Naish, S., W. Hu, N. Nicholls, J.S. MacKenzie, A.J. McMichael, P. Dale, and S. Tong, 2006: Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia, Environmental Health Perspectives, 114, 678-683.
• Nicholls N., C.D. Butler, I. Hanigan, 2006: Inter-annual rainfall variations and suicide in New South Wales, Australia, 1964-2001, Int. J. of Biometeorology, 50, 139-143.
• Peter, J.R, S. Siems, J.B. Jensen, J.L. Gras, Y. Ishizaka, and J.M. Hacker, 2006: Prediction and observation of cloud processing of the aerosol size distribution by a band of cumulus, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Soc., Part A., 132, 845-863.
• Rinke, A., Dethloff, K., Cassano, J. Christensen, J.H., Curry, J.A., Du, P., Girard, E., Haugen, J.-E., Jacob, D., Jones, C.G., Koltzow, M., Laprise, R., Lynch, A.H., Pfeifer, S., Serreze, M.C., Shaw, M.J., Tjernstrom, M., Wyser, K., Zagar, M., 2006: Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatial patterns and height profiles. Climate Dynamics, 26, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-005-0095-3.
• Smith, R. K., M. J. Reeder, P. May and H. Richter. 2006: Low-level convergence lines over northern Australia. II. Southerly disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3109-3124.
• Thompson, R. and R. M. Clark,, 2006: Spatio-temporal Modelling and assessment of within-species phenological variability using thermal time methods, Int. J. Biometeorol., 50, 312-322.
• Uotila, P., D. M. Holland, M. Morales Maqueda, S. Häkkinen, G. Holloway, M. Karcher, F. Kauker, M. Steele, N. Yakovlev, J. Zhang, and A. Proshutinsky, 2006: An Energy-Diagnostics Intercomparison of Coupled Ice-Ocean Arctic Models, Ocean Modelling, 11, 1-27.
• Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H.H. Hendon, E.D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K.R. Sperber and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Four Pairs of Coupled and Uncoupled Global Models. Climate Dynamics, 27 (6), 573-592.

2005

• Arcari, P., N. Tapper, S. Pfueller, C. Windi, 2005: The importance of climate for dengue/DHF in Indonesia, Epidemology, 16, S37-S38.
• Barrett, D.J., Hill, M.J., Hutley, L.B., Beringer, J., Xu, J., Cook, G., Carter, J., Williams, R. 2005: Prospects for improving savanna biophysical models using multiple constraints model-data assimilation methods, Special issue on Carbon accounting and land management in Australian savannas, Australian Journal of Botany 53: 689-714.
• Beringer, J., F.S. Chapin III, C.D. Thompson, and A.D. McGuire 2005: Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 131(3-4): 143-161.
• Chambers, S.D., Beringer, J., Randerson, J.T. and Chapin III, F.S. 2005: Fire effects on net radiation and energy partitioning: Contrasting responses of tundra and boreal forest ecosystems, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 110, No. D9, D09106.
• Chapin, F.S., III, M. Sturm, J.P. McFadden, J.R. Key, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, T.S. Rupp, A.H. Lynch, J.P. Schimel, J. Beringer, H.E. Epstein, L.D. Hinzman, G. Jia, C.-L. Ping, M.C. Serreze, K. Tape, W.L. Chapman, C.D.C. Thompson, J.M. Welker, and D.A. Walker, 2005: Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming. Science, 310, 5748, 657-660.
• Clark, T.L., M.J. Reeder, M. Griffiths, D. Packham, and N. Krusel, 2005: Infrared observations and numerical modelling of grassland fires in the Northern Territory, Australia, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 88, 193-201.
• Cox, M.L., G.A. Sturrock, P.J. Fraser, S.T. Siems, and P.B. Krummel, 2005: Identification of regional sources of methyl bromide and methyl iodide from AGAGE observations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, J. of Atmospheric Chemistry, 50, 59-77.
• Dethloff K., A. Rinke, H. Morrison, W. Dorn, R. Gerdes, W. Maslowski, V. Kattsov, M. Lange, K. Görgen, A. Lynch, 2005: Global Impacts of Arctic Climate Processes, EOS Transactions, 86, 49, 513-514.
• Griffiths, G.M., Chambers, L.E., Haylock, M.R., Manton, M.J., Nicholls, N., Baek, H.J., Choi, Y., Della-Marta, P.M., Gosai, A., Iga, N., Lata, R., Laurent, V., Maitrepierre, L., Nakamigawa, H., Ouprasitwong, N., Solofa, D., Tahani, L., Thuy, T., Tibig, L., Trewin, B., Vediapan, K. and Zhai, P. 2005: Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region.Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1301-1330.
• Hinzman, L. D., N. D. Bettez, W. R. Bolton, F. S. Chapin, M. B. Dyurgerov, C. L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R. D. Hollister, A. Hope, H. P. Huntington, A. M. Jensen, G. J. Jia, T. Jorgenson, D. L. Kane, D. R. Klein, G. Kofinas, A. H. Lynch, A. H. Lloyd, A. D. McGuire, F. E. Nelson, W. C. Oechel, T. E. Osterkamp, C. H. Racine, V. E. Romanovsky, R. S. Stone, D. A. Stow, M. Sturm, C. E. Tweedie, G. L. Vourlitis, M. D. Walker, D. A. Walker, P. J. Webber, J. M. Welker, K. S. Winker, K. Yoshikawa, 2005: Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Terrestrial Regions of the Arctic. Climatic Change, 72(3): 251-298.
• Hutley, L.B., Leuning, R., Beringer, J. and Cleugh, H. 2005: The utility of the eddy covariance techniques as a tool in carbon accounting: tropical savanna as a case study, Special issue on Carbon accounting and land management in Australian savannas, Australian Journal of Botany, 53: 663-675.
• Li, F.Q., L.E. Chambers, N. Nicholls, 2005: Relationships between rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia and near-global patterns of sea-surface temperature and mean sea-level pressure variability, Australian Meteorological Magazine, 54, 23-33.
• McGibbony S.C., S.T. Siems, W.L. Physick, and P. Hurley, 2005: The sensitivity of simulations of air pollution events at Cape Grim to the modelled meteorology, Australian Meteorological Magazine, 54, 321-331.
• Nicholls, N., H.J. Baek, A. Gosai, L.E. Chambers, Y. Choi Y, D. Collins, P.M. Della-Marta, G.M. Griffiths, M.R. Haylock, N. Iga, R. Lata, L. Maitrepierre, M.J. Manton, H. Nakamigawa, N. Ouprasitwong, D. Solofa, L. Tahani, D.T. Thuy, L. Tibig, B. Trewin, K. Vediapan, P. Zhai, 2005: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation and daily temperature extremes in east Asia and the west Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16714.
• Nicholls, N., 2005: Climate and culture connections in Australia, Australian Meteorological Magazine, 54, 309-319.
• Nicholls N., 2005: Climate variability, climate change and the Australian snow season, Australian Meteorological Magazine, 54, 177-185.
• Nicholls N. 2005: Taken by storm: The troubled science, policy and politics of global, Australian J. of  Agricultural and Resource Economics, 49, 362-364.
• Power, S., B. Sadler, and N. Nicholls, 2005:>The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia - Lessons for climate scientists, Bull. of  American Met. Soc., 86, 839-.
• Reeder, M.J., K.J. Tory, 2005: The effect of the continental boundary layer on the dynamics of fronts in a 2D model of baroclinic instability. II: Surface heating and cooling, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Soc., Part B., 131, 2409-2429.
• Spengler, T., M.J. Reeder, and R.K. Smith, 2005: The dynamics of heat lows in simple background flows, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Soc., Part B., 131, 3147-3165.
• Tong, S., W. Hu, N. Nicholls, P. Dale, J. S. MacKenzie, J. Patz, A.J. McMichael, 2005: Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus, Internal Medicine Journal, 35, 677-U1.
• Tory, K.J., and M.J. Reeder, 2005: The effect of the continental boundary layer on the dynamics of fronts in a 2D model of baroclinic instability. I: An insulated lower surface, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Soc., Part B., 131, 2389-2408.
• Wu, W., A.H. Lynch, and A.R. Rivers, 2005: Estimating the Uncertainty in a Regional Climate Model Related to Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions J. Climate, 18, 917-933.