Complex theory

Issue 20 | Spring/Summer 2007

Report: Samantha Blair
Photography: Greg Ford

Professor David Green

Scientists are moving beyond the laboratory to create computer simulations using flocks of birds and the flu epidemic to show the relationship between humans, machines and animals.

They have developed an online resource to test a range of complex scenarios and in a rare move, are sharing that intellectual capital with colleagues and the public. Computers have been part of life and scientific research for decades but it's only recently they have had the capacity to mimic the complexity of nature and our community.

"One of the insights that complex systems science has given us is that what seem like trivial local interactions can have staggering global consequences," says Professor David Green, a researcher with the Faculty of Information Technology.

"A flock of birds flows and changes based on the behaviour of individual birds. An epidemic emerges from seemingly random contact between people. Social trends emerge from similar human behaviours; and economic strain in one country can sweep across the globe," he said.

In our modern world, we are surrounded by complex systems rich in inter-reaction, Professor Green said.

"Imagine the impact of a computer virus on one computer -- it is devastating for the user, but if a virus attacks a network, the problems which follow can be catastrophic.

"It's all part of a field known as Complexity Theory, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts."

Monash IT Faculty researchers are creating highly sophisticated computer models, known as the virtual laboratory (VLAB), that can analyse and predict complex systems and outcomes.

Their latest achievement is an online laboratory designed to study the consequences of complexity in a range of systems.

"How does the media affect public opinion? What is the influence of social interactions on law and order in society? How do we understand the reasons behind large scale behaviour, such as a stock market crash? These are all obvious examples of complex networks," he said.

"It is an area of research which is growing rapidly, as our society becomes increasingly dependant on networks," Professor Green said.

"The more we can understand how complex systems work, how they evolve and how to control them, the better we will be in understanding our own personal, environmental, social and technological environments and the better able we will be to manage them."

In the spirit of collaboration, VLAB is open for anyone across the world to access and use.

Professor Green said it was important for his global colleagues to be able to easily trial their theories and for the general public to learn more about this emerging science.

He says it's an exciting future, predicting the next generation of complexity theory models will be able to not only map scenario outcomes, but also warn of negative consequences and suggest alternatives.

For more information please visit the VLAB website.