Sensing a change in the wind

Issue 19 | Autumn/Winter 2007

Report: Samantha Blair
Photography: David Hine, Australia Research Council

Professor Amanda Lynch

Hurricane Katrina left a trail of devastation across the Gulf Coast of the United States in 2005, claiming more than 1000 lives and causing billions of dollars in damage. The natural disaster has provided many lessons that Monash researchers say Australia should be learning from.

There's a sense of urgency about the global climate forecast from Professor Amanda Lynch: "The number and intensity of natural disasters is starting to increase. This is likely to be as a result of climate change and people need to be better prepared if we're going to cope with the effects".

Professor Lynch is a Federation Fellow with the School of Geography and Environmental Science, Faculty of Arts at Monash and has recently been appointed to the influential Council of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).

After a career in researching weather patterns, she is well equipped to join the organisation which shapes the way worldwide weather patterns and trends are monitored and publicised.

Professor Lynch says a newly-released AMS report into hurricanes finds that as a global society, we need to learn how to better cope and deal with hurricanes, typhoons and in Australia's case, tropical cyclones.

It's a phenomenon that she says is only going to become more regular and currently we do not have the best system in place to respond to these natural emergencies.

"It's time we started to seriously consider an action plan," she says.

"It used to be that a Cyclone Tracy would hit a community only once or twice in a life-time, but we should be adjusting the way we prepare for future crisis management. Research has shown that climate change is likely to be associated with an increase in the number of cyclones and their ferocity."

While climate change may seem gradual, Professor Lynch explains that climate change causes shifts in other elements and those effects happen far more rapidly.

"Already we are starting to see increases in weather extremes. We're experiencing more severe droughts and conversely, floods. Locally, we're also discovering there are more frosts in Autumn, and hotter days in summer. This is probably caused by climate change. We are also seeing increases in hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons," she said.

There is an urgent need to re-examine how cyclones are forecast, how that information is disseminated to the community and how emergency services and personnel within those communities can implement plans to deal with them.

"Hurricane Katrina was a wake-up call for all of us. 1300 people lost their lives and it became a realisation that the emergency procedures and evacuation processes put into place were not effective and could not deal with such a crisis," she says.

"We can do little to prevent these immediate natural disasters, but we can look to the future in terms of preventing the amount of devastation caused by them."

Professor Lynch says we can't predict when the next tropical cyclone will hit Australia's shores, but we can be prepared. The best starting point is to establish better communication and acknowledge our responsibility as a community.

We don't, however, have to start from scratch, Australia already has the organisational infrastructure to deal with some natural disasters: "The government agencies, emergency services departments, volunteer organisations and media all know what to do in a severe bushfire, and it is due to this excellent chain of communication that we've been able to protect lives".

"It's not necessarily up to the governments alone to implement and control disaster processes. We have already seen how effective and resilient Australians are when it comes to other disaster scenarios," she said.

"We deal with bushfires very well. We have an excellent process in place where residents are aware of evacuation processes, how to save themselves and in some cases, their homes and property.

"We have a good understanding of personal responsibility in a bushfire situation and we have a good sense of community - and that's perhaps the edge we have over many other countries.

"However, if a tropical cyclone were to sweep across our coastline tomorrow, I'm not confident that we, as individuals, would know what to do, and I don't know if residents would know whether to evacuate or stay put."

Through her involvement in AMS, Professor Lynch hopes the message is heeded not only in Australia, but other cyclone-prone communities across the world.

More information on the AMS can be found by visiting the American Meteorological Society website. Information on research by Professor Amanda Lynch is available from the Monash Geography and Environmental Science website.