ETW3420 - Principles of forecasting and applications
6 points, SCA Band 3, 0.125 EFTSL
Undergraduate Faculty of Business and Economics
Leader(s): Dr Santha Vaithilingam
Sunway First semester 2009 (Day)
Topics include fundamentals of forecasting, univariate and multivariate forecasting tools. The univariate forecasting tools include moving averages, exponential smoothing forecasting, seasonal decomposition, review of basic time series analysis and Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models. Econometric approaches to multivariate forecasting include regression models, modelling and forecasting with ARIMA processes and evaluation of forecasts. Introduction to qualitative forecasting methods including technological forecasting methods. Excel, SPSS and EViews will be used.
The learning goals associated with this unit are to:
- recognise typical forecasting problems in business and economics
- understand and appreciate statistical underpinning and foundation of forecasting techniques
- be familiar with the various tools used in forecasting and to be able to apply these techniques appropriately and recognise the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques used
- have an appreciation of forecasting in practice
- develop quantitative research skills and ability in interpreting computer output and to be able to write and present reports effectively.
Within semester assessment: 40%
Examination (2 hours): 60%
One 2-hour lecture and one 2-hour tutorial/lab per week