The SinoTERM Model

SinoTERM is a "bottom-up" CGE model of China which treats each region as a separate economy. The SinoTERM database distinguishes 137 sectors and 31 regions (based on the 2002 input-output table for China). A version of SinoTERM is downloadable: COPS archive item TPGW0086. Although the downloadable database (47 sectors, 31 regions) is an aggregation of our master database, we believe that it is still larger than any previous CGE or input-output database of China. We encourage others to use this model for their own research with due acknowledgement.

SinoTERM developments

A paper describing SinoTERM

This is a longer version of a paper accepted for publication in the China Economic Review: working paper.

Updating the published input-output table to 2006

Since China's real GDP grew by 48% between 2002 and 2006, there is substantial motivation to update the national input-output table to 2006. Following the methodology described in COPS archive item TPMH0058, CoPS has updated both a version of the national database and SinoTERM to 2006. We are in the process of preparing a working paper on the updating exercise.

Learning to run CGE models including SinoTERM

The Centre of Policy Studies runs various training courses. It is possible that we will run a Practical GE course in Beijing some time late in 2008 or in 2009.

Enquiries about consultancies using SinoTERM should be addressed to Dr. Glyn Wittwer.

TERM simulation result: long-run effects on employment of better transport infrastructure
in selected north-western regions (Chongqing, Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang).
Shows % changes in province shares of national employment.

See also

• COPS archive item TPGW0086: Version of SinoTERM model as at May 2008. 2002 data, aggregated down to 47 from 137 broad sectors while retaining all 31 regions.
• COPS archive item TPMH0083: shows how the China 2002 IO Tables were processed.
• COPS archive item TPGW0079: A 63-sector, 10 region SinoTERM simulation presented to a conference in Changsha, July 2007.
• COPS archive item TPMH0067: using older data, shows how a national CGE database for China is transformed into a multi-regional SinoTERM database.
• Powerpoint presentation about SinoTerm.
• The TERM model for Australia and other countries.