MONASH is the latest development in the ORANI suite of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the Australian economy. It is designed for forecasting and for policy analysis.
The MONASH model produces annual forecasts of structural developments in the economy which track forecasts of the business cycle and of developments in world commodity markets. MONASH results distinguish 112 industries, 57 regions and 340 occupations.
At the same level of industrial, regional and occupational disaggregation, MONASH can be used to assess the effects on the economy's forecast growth path of policy changes and of changes in other base-case assumptions.
This course is aimed at participants who wish to learn about the forecasting and policy capabilities of MONASH.
Course participants will receive:
By the end of the course, participants will have acquired thorough knowledge of:
Course participants will be given copies of the MONASH Model book "Dynamic, General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: a Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH" (by Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer). This contains complete documentation of the MONASH Model. Course participants will also be given the RunMONASH software which will allow them to run simulations with an aggregated version of the model (around 32 sectors and 6 regions) on Windows 95 (or later) PCs with at least 64 megabytes of memory.
The course is designed for participants who have familiarity with the techniques underlying CGE modelling. The level expected is that obtained at the CoPS Practical GE Modelling course (held in June) or equivalent. In addition, some months experience with CGE modelling is desirable. Participants should download the ORANIG handbook or alternatively study Chapter 3 of Dixon, Parmenter, Powell and Wilcoxen, Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics (North-Holland, 1992) prior to the course and should be confident that they can master Exercises 3.1 to 3.6 therein. This is as used in the 2002 Practical GE Modelling course. It includes TAB, STI, and CMF files together with a 22-sector 1987 Australian database and a 70-page Microsoft Word 97 document describing it.
Previous experience with GEMPACK is required. For example, knowledge gained at the CoPS Practical GE Modelling Course or a GTAP Short Course will be adequate. The Demonstration Version of GEMPACK, which enables users to solve the Stylized Johansen model, can be downloaded the GEMPACK Home Page
The course program will consist of lectures integrated with extensive hands-on experience with modelling in GEMPACK. Much of the course will be conducted in a computer laboratory with each participant having access to a dedicated PC. The course is designed as a live-in program, with participants expected to work in the evening as well as during the day.
Lectures and PC labs will normally be held 9am-1pm and 2pm-6.45pm, with dinner from 6.30pm-7.45pm. Evening sessions are from 7.00pm to 8.15pm.
| Monday 21/11 | |
| am | Overview of Monash Model, including dynamics |
| am/pm | Theoretical structure of MONASH - Data |
| Interrogating the computer representation of MONASH | |
Tuesday 22/11 |
|
| am/pm | Theoretical structure of MONASH, including dynamics |
| Computing comparative-static simulations | |
Wednesday 23/11 |
|
| am | Discussion of results of comparative-static simulations |
| am/pm | Theoretical structure of MONASH - Forecasts |
| pm | Computing forecasts |
Thursday 24/11 |
|
| am | Discussion of MONASH forecast results |
| Theoretical structure of MONASH - Policy Deviations | |
| pm | Computing policy deviations |
| evening | Begin group projects |
Friday 25/11 |
|
| am/pm | Group preparations of reports on MONASH projects |
| evening | Course dinner |
Saturday 26/11 |
|
| am | Group presentation of reports on MONASH projects |
| 12.30pm | Course ends with lunch |
The fee for the course is:
Australian residents:
$3300 (academic or government) [includes $300 GST]
$4180 (other) [includes$380 GST]
Others:
$A3000 (academic or government)
$A3800 (other)
This fee includes course materials (including software), dinners, morning and afternoon teas, the course dinner and lunch on the first and last days. It does not include accommodation, breakfast and other lunches.
The course dinner will be held at a restaurant on Friday evening.
The cost of this is included in the course fee.
Registrations and Payment Details
Although several organisations outside CoPS are able to carry out forecasts and policy simulations with MONASH, very few have been able to work with the historical and decomposition features of MONASH. The course addresses this by giving hands-on experience with these aspects of MONASH.
The course is only available to participants at this year's or previous year's MONASH Model Courses.
The MONASH model can be used for estimating changes in tastes and technology using simulations run with the historical closure. Using the decomposition closure, MONASH can also be used to explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as policy changes, changes in world commodity prices and changes in tastes and technology.
Participants in this course will work in detail through the derivation of the historical closure from the policy closure. The course covers material in Chapter 6 of the forthcoming MONASH book "Dynamic, General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: a Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH" (by Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer).
Participants will also learn how to decompose these historical results.
Exercises and group projects will involve extensions or modifications of the standard historical and decomposition closures and results.
The fee for the course is:
Australian residents:
$1100 (academic or government) [includes $100 GST]
$1650 (other) [includes $150 GST]
Others:
$A1000 (academic or government)
$A1500 (other)
The courses will only be offered if sufficient registrations are confirmed.
A registration form can be downloaded and emailed or faxed to
Louise Pinchen
Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project
Monash University
Wellington Road
Clayton Vic 3800 Australia
phone: (03) 9905 5112 from overseas +613 9905 5112
fax: (03) 9905 2426 from overseas +613 9905 2426
Payment options and accommodation details can also be found on the registration form.
See here for advice about getting to CoPS, sporting facilities at Clayton, and visa applications .
Louise Pinchen phone: (03)
9905 5112 from overseas +613 9905 5112
fax: (03) 9905 2426 from overseas +613 9905 2426
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