RunDynam is a Windows interface which provides an environment specially tailored for carrying out forecasts and policy deviations with recursive dynamic models.
You can download the Demonstration Version of RunDynam. You can also download an example application which is based on a dynamic version ORANIG-RD of the ORANI-G model. This uses 30-sector data of Japan. You can run this application and look at the results.
Although RunDynam is general-purpose software, the Demonstration Version of RunDynam is limited to this one application. (See point 8 below for more details.)
Download RDYNDMCD.EXE (7.7 Mb) and save in any temporary directory.
To install the Demonstration Version of RunDynam, run RDYNDMCD.EXE. The installer will suggest that you install this in the directory C:\RUNDYNDM (but you can choose a different directory if you prefer). The installer should create a RunDynDm icon on your desktop which you can use to run RunDynam. [The actual program is called RunDynDm.EXE]
You should also install the latest version of AnalyseGE which is a requirement of the current version of RunDynam (version 3.18, April 2007).
Download OGRDAP1.ZIP (2.0 Mb) and save in the ARCHIVE subdirectory of the directory in which you installed RunDynam, eg C:\RunDynDm\archive.
Start RunDynam running by double clicking on the RunDynDm icon on your desktop.
RunDynam will probably suggest that you start by loading an application from a ZIP
archive. If so, say "Yes" and follow the instructions below. If RunDynam does not make
this suggestion, please select, from the File menu, the item
"Restore Ingredients from ZIP Archive" and follow the instructions below.
Select the ZIP archive OGRDAP1.ZIP which you downloaded (see above).
You will then be asked to specify the directory to restore the files to. We suggest that you specify the OGRDAP1 subdirectory of the directory in which you installed RunDynam. [Probably RunDynam will make this suggestion to you.]
Then agree to all the suggestions that RunDynam makes. At the end you should see a message saying that "Restored application is now the current application.".
Have a look at the different pages in the tabbed notebook that RunDynam shows. These are labelled Introduction, Model/Data, Sim Overview, Closure/Shock, Results, Files.
On the Model/Data page (click on the Model/Data tab to get there), you can see the name of the program ORANIGRD.EXE which will solve the model for each year of the Base Case and Policy runs. You can also see the name of the starting data file ORANIGRD.HAR. If you wish to look at the actual data, right click on the BASEDATA line under the heading "Input Files for First Year of Base Case" and select option "View this file".
On the Sim Overview page you can see that the Base Case and Policy runs will cover 25 years, starting with data (ORANIGRD.HAR) for the year 2000 and producing data for each year from 2001 to 2025.
On the Closure/Shocks page you can see the different files used for the closure and shocks for each of the 25 years of the Base Case and the Policy. To see one of the closure files, right click on NATURAL.CLS (under Base Closures) and select "Edit". [But be careful not to make any changes to this file.] In this particular application,
RunDynam is completely documented in the extensive Help file which is supplied with it. To see this, click on menu item "Contents" under the Help menu.
Click on the Run Base case button near the bottom of the screen. RunDynam will solve for the 25 years of the Base Case. [This will take 10 or so minutes.]
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page.
For example, click on the Spreadsheet button. You may need to tell RunDynam where your spreadsheet program (eg, Excel) is located. You will see the year-on-year results for each year of the Base Case. You should see, for example, that x3tot (real household consumption) increases by 3 percent each year. Similarly for the other real variables shown since the Base Case is a uniform growth scenario.
You can check this by looking at some of the Base Closure files on the Closure/Shocks page. For example, right click on the FORECAST.BSH file and select "Edit". You can see several shocks of size 3.
Click on the Run Policy button near the bottom of the screen. For simplicity, say "No" when asked if you want to check that the prerequisites are ok.
RunDynam will solve for the 25 years of the Policy. [This will take 10 or so minutes.]
When the whole run has finished, you can look at the results on the Results page. For example, in the "Results for All/Several Years" section (the top part) of the Results page, make sure that "Differences - Policy v Base" and "Cumulative" are selected. Then click on the Spreadsheet button. You will see the cumulative differences between the Policy results and the Base Case results. You should see, for example, that x3tot is 0.95 percent higher in year 2002, 0.11 percent higher in year 2003 and so on.
The Policy shock is a temporary 1 percent increase in real household consumption (via shift variable f3tot) in 2002. The shock is temporary since it is reversed in year 2003. To see this, go to the Closure/Shocks page and right click and "Edit" the Policy Shock files F3TOT.PSH and REVERSE.PSH.
You can use ViewSOL to look at the results via the Graph/ViewSOL button on the Results page. You can draw graphs from within ViewSOL (see the ViewSOL's Help menu item).
You might like to look at the additions to the TABLO file for the model which have been made to turn the comparative-static ORANI-G model into a recursive dynamic model. If so, click on Main TABLO file under the View menu. Search for Dynamic Extension to see the part of the TAB file relating to the dynamic extension of the model. You can download documentation and files relating to the ORANIG-RD model.
You can try other policy shocks.
You can build a different Base Case.
Don't forget the Help file.
As you can see, RunDynam offers many options and possibilities. The best way to learn about RunDynam and dynamic models is to come to the MONASH Model Course.
Although RunDynam is general-purpose software, the Demonstration Version of RunDynam is limited to the ORANIGRD/Japan application supplied with it (see above). If you try to run with a different Model (EXE) or different starting data, RunDynam will stop (with a somewhat cryptic error message). [Even if you have source-code GEMPACK and modify the TAB file, you will not be able to run the new EXE under the Demonstration Version of RunDynam.]
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