The CRUSOE Suite

Includes executable versions of two single-country models, ORANIG and CRUSOE, which both work with the same database format (10-sectors). 30 sample databases, corresponding to different regions of the world are supplied -- these have been adapted from the GTAP database. With full source code of both models and documentation of the ORANIG model, of which the CRUSOE model is a simplified version.

Prerequisite: basic GEMPACK knowledge is assumed. If you have not previously used GEMPACK, go first to Demonstration Version of GEMPACK

Contents

1 Introduction

ORANIG has proved an excellent starting point for the construction of other single-country models. Various researchers have adapted it to a number of countries including China, Denmark, Phillipines, Korea, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Pakistan, South Africa, Fiji and Thailand. These models incorporate country-specific variations from the original ORANIG equation system; their databases are drawn from disparate sources with varying levels of commodity disaggregation. None of them is so easily accessible as the original, Australian, version of ORANIG.

The CRUSOE project extends the usefulness of ORANIG by providing for it a series of databases covering 30 countries or world regions. These databases cover 10 sectors and are drawn from Version 3 of the GTAP database. The same TABLO-generated model works with any of the 30 databases. 37-sector versions of the databases are also available.

It is an operational requirement of the GTAP model that the same data-gathering approach is applied to all regions. This exerts pressure towards a rather simple, 'lowest common denominator' data base. For most individual countries a more comprehensive database could be compiled -- given time, effort and skill. The CRUSOE databases could be useful when these resources are unavailable, or as a makeshift which would allow preliminary modelling efforts to proceed while a larger database is being constructed.

Some features of ORANIG are not supported by data derived from GTAP. A simplified version of ORANIG (which uses the same data files) is provided, which omits these features. The simplified model, CRUSOE, might well be used for instructional purposes.

Another interesting possibility is to use either the CRUSOE or the ORANIG model to examine the effects of the same shock on a variety of different regions. There are few other AGE models for which such a variety of directly comparable databases are available.

2 CRUSOE - a simplified version of ORANIG

Although the GTAP model boasts unexcelled richness of detail in its treatment of world trade flows and distortions, ORANIG offers a more elaborate treatment of individual countries. Thus some features of ORANIG are not supported by data derived from GTAP:

• modelling of margin commodities,
• joint production,
• substitution between different types of labour,
• industry-specific technologies for building new capital stocks, and
• inventory demands.

The CRUSOE databases accommodate the data needs of ORANIG either by providing appropriately dimensioned matrices of zeroes or by applying default rules to expand the GTAP database. See below, Further Background Information. An alternative approach is to simplify the theory of ORANIG so that only data included in the GTAP system are required. Following this approach, the CRUSOE suite also includes a stripped-down version of the ORANIG model, named CRUSOE. The CRUSOE model:

• recognizes no margins,
• assumes a one-to-one correspondence between industries and commodities,
• recognizes only one type of labour,
• treats investment as a single column of final demands,
• includes no inventories, and
• includes fewer technical change terms than ORANIG.

The result is a simpler, leaner model than ORANIG which may well be more suitable for teaching purposes. The disadvantage is that it is not so well documented. However, since the notation used by CRUSOE is the same as that used by ORANIG, the majority of the ORANIG documentation (supplied in Microsoft Word format) applies to CRUSOE as well, although some sections will no longer be relevant.

Any of the 30 regional databases may be used interchangeably with either the ORANIG or CRUSOE models. Some of the data items on the databases will be used by only one of the two models. In addition, each database includes summary tables of costs and sales for each sector, both as flows and as percentages of sectoral output. These tables are included for convenience only: they are not required by either model.

3 Countries and Sectors of CRUSOE

Version 3 of the GTAP database contains 37 sectors and 30 regions. These are listed below. For completeness, a CRUSOE data file has been created for every GTAP region, even though some of them are composite regions which would form a strange basis for a single country model.

Since GTAP derives revenue from selling data, it is not possible to freely distribute extracts of their data which distinguish more than 10 commodities. According, the 30 single-region CRUSOE databases (which originally contained 37 sectors) have been aggregated to 10 sectors. The mapping from 37 to 10 sectors is shown below.

The 37-sector versions of the CRUSOE data are available on request, but only to those who have permission from GTAP. To obtain this permission, or to get more information about the GTAP sectoral and regional classification, contact GTAP.

4 Downloading and Installing CRUSOE

CRUSOE has been packaged as a series of 4 ZIP files, each fitting onto a 1.44MB floppy disk. Create a CRUSOE subdirectory on your hard disk, and download and unzip the 4 files there:

Crusoe1.zip (114k)

• CRUSOE.TXT - text version of the file you are reading now
• ORANIG.DOC - Microsoft Word document explaining ORANIG model.
• ORANIG.TAB and ORANIG.STI - source code and TABLO input file for the ORANIG model
• ORANIGSR.CMF and ORANIGLR.CMF - sample longrun and shortrun experiment files for ORANIG
• CRUSOE.TAB and CRUSOE.STI - source code and TABLO input file for the CRUSOE model
• CRUSOESR.CMF and CRUSOELR.CMF - sample longrun and shortrun experiment files for CRUSOE
• GDATA.TAB - for reference only: TAB file which produced CRUSOE data files

• Includes regional data files numbered 1-30 according to the table above

• Includes executable version of ORANIG model, namely files ORANIG.EXE, ORANIG.AXS and ORANIG.AXT

• Includes executable version of CRUSOE model, namely files CRUSOE.EXE, CRUSOE.AXS and CRUSOE.AXT

TABLO < ORANIG.STI

Unless you already have a copy, you will also need to obtain GEMPIE, a program for converting the binary solution files made by GEMPACK into text form. See Executable images of some GEMPACK utility programs.

4.1 Running the models

The 4 CMF files which are supplied all refer to a single-country data file called HOME.HAR. Before running either model you will have to create such a file. For example, if you wished to conduct experiments for the USA (region 16), you should issue the DOS command:

COPY REG16USA.HAR HOME.HAR

You can run ORANIG.EXE by typing:

ORANIG
CMF
ORANIGSR.CMF

After a short time, the solution file ORANIGSR.SL4 should be produced, which you could view using GEMPIE.

The CMF files have been prepared in such a way that the same numerical results are computed for both ORANIG and CRUSOE models. That is, running ORANIG with ORANIGSR.CMF yields the same results as does running CRUSOE with CRUSOESR.CMF. Similarly, running ORANIG with ORANIGLR.CMF yields the same results as does running CRUSOE with CRUSOELR.CMF.

5 Further Background Information

This section gives a few details of how the GTAP database was converted to ORANIG format. The principal change, of course, was that for each country, all exports and imports, which are distinguished by destination and source in GTAP, were aggregated into one. Trade taxes were aggregated in the same way. Each country's expenditure on shipping services was treated like an ordinary export.

The investment demand column in the CRUSOE data base was formed from the inputs to GTAP's capital goods sector. ORANIG requires a investment demand column for each industry: this was formed by splitting the single investment column in proportion to capital rentals. The same procedure was used to derive the industry-specific investment totals used by CRUSOE.

The margins matrices and inventory column needed by ORANIG are simply matrices filled with zeroes. The MAKE matrix is diagonal. None of these is required by CRUSOE.

Where possible, elasticities were derived from GTAP. For households, Frisch and LES expenditure elasticities were derived from budget shares and CDE parameters. The domestic/import Armington elasticities from GTAP were used in the same way for ORANIG. The import/import Armington elasticities from GTAP were used, in ORANIG, as a proxy for export demand elasticities. They have lower values than the export demand elasticities that are normally used for ORANIG, with correspondingly larger terms of trade changes.

In GTAP, industry outputs are subject to production tax, and also to user-specific usage taxes. The former became, for ORANIG, the 'other cost tickets' while the latter became the commodity tax matrices. So for ORANIG, the production taxes enter into the value of output, whilst for GTAP they do not. For the most part, this difference has little economic significance.

The data conversion was done using a TABLO program. The source code for this, in file GDATA.TAB, is included in the CRUSOE package.

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