The Centre of Policy Studies welcomes new staff member Dr Xiujian Peng.
The Kyoto talks in Bali, and the advent of the new Rudd Australian government,
highlight the question: what would be the economic cost of reducing Australia's CO2
emissions? CoPS has taken a leading role in this debate, documented in a series of
newspaper articles which are listed here.
November 2007
Professor Philip Adams gave an economic perspective on climate change at a recent
Monash University Forum on Sustainability held at Caulfield Campus. News
Link
Working Paper No.G-167 Why, how and when did GTAP happen? What has it achieved? Where
is it heading?, by Alan Powell (abstract and download)
is now available.
Working Paper No. G-168 The Sydney Olympics, seven years on: an ex-post dynamic CGE
assessment, by James A Giesecke, John R Madden (abstract and
download) is now available
October 2007
The Centre of Policy Studies welcomes new staff member Marnie Griffith.
During the last week of October 2007,
Philip Adams and Mark Horridge presented a course in Trade Modelling at the University of
Pretoria (UP). The course was hosted by the AFRINEM
(African Institute for Economic Modelling) project at UP.
CoPS PhD student Felicity Pang was invited to give a presentation at the 2007 KNSO
International Conference on "Growth, Distribution, and Social Accounting Matrices", on
25-26, October in Daejeon, Korea. The conference was organised by the Korea National
Statistical Office.
The aims of the conference were 1) to exchange ideas about developing a social accounting
matrix for Korea, which will be used for analysing the economic and social effects of
policy changes and 2) to establish a global network for future studies.
Felicity's presentation was "An Aggregate Social Accounting Matrix for the Australian
Economy: Data Sources and Methods" (co-authored with G.A. Meagher and G.C.Lim). At that
conference, presenters from different countries discussed various aspects of social
accounting matrices, including conceptual issues, data issues and issues concerning the
relationship between social accounting matrices and CGE modelling.
September 2007
ACCOMPLISHMENT AWARDS FROM THE U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Dr Ashley
Winston, Senior Research Fellow at CoPS, has been given two awards by the U.S.
International Trade Commission. Ashley has been outposted to the Commission since
December 2004. He is a vital part of CoPS' co-operative modelling work with the U.S.
government. Ashley's awards are for "Superior Accomplishment". They were presented at the
USITC annual awards ceremony in Washington DC on October 25. The citations read (1) "For
collaborative effort and innovative technical assistance to the US Senate Finance
Committee regarding the effects of NAFTA on the US sweetener sector", and (2) "For
collaborative effort and innovations to the CGE analysis of the agricultural and textile
and apparel sectors on the Imports Restraints study".
ITC officials joked about how much they like giving Ashley awards - there is a cash prize
associated with these awards for employees but they can't pay the cash prize to Ashley as
he is not an employee!!!
STRATEGIC EXCELLENCE AWARD 2007 - LOOK OUT Dr Glyn Wittwer, Senior Research
Fellow at CoPS, has been awarded the CSIRO's Strategic Excellence Award for producing a
groundbreaking report showing the economic implications of providing water to five
million more Australians by 2032. The report informs and challenges a range of people and
industries on the future costs they may face for water and ways in which these costs can
be significantly reduced. The Without Water study was jointly authored by Mike Young
(formerly CSIRO, now at Uni of Adelaide), Wendy Proctor and Ejaz Qureshi (CSIRO).
August 2007
The Centre of Policy Studies welcomes new staff member Nhi Hoang Tran.
Working Papers G-165 and G-166 are now available for. Download.
Registrations for the September 2007 Practical GE Modelling course being held at
Macquarie University are now closed. See our training courses site for details on
all our courses.
July 2007
The July 2007 Practical CGE Modelling Course and the July 2007 Regional training
courses have been run. Photos of particpants can be found . Here.
Glyn Wittwer travelled to China in July. He presented a paper at the Consortium for
Western China Development Studies conference in Guiyang and at the Chinese Economists
Society conference in Changsha. He also presented seminars at the Henan Agricultural
University in Zhengzhou and Hunan University in Changsha. The subject of each
presentation was SinoTERM, a 137 sector, 31 region CGE multi-regional model of China
developed by Mark Horridge and Glyn.
Registration is now open for the 2007 USA Dynamic CGE modelling courses. Details and Registration.
June 2007
June 18 2007: Mark Horridge and Ken Pearson named as two of the inaugural five
members of the GTAP Hall of Fame. Hall of Fame.
June 16 2007: Emissions trading article appeared in a Newcastle Herald.
May 28-29 2007: Professor Peter Dixon's press clippings on emission trading The Canberra Times and
The Age. Professor Peter Dixon's interview on The Wire. A daily current affairs
program broadcast on Community radio stations around Australia. The economics of action
on Climate Change Listen. Professor
Peter Dixon talked to Radio National's Fran Kelly on the Breakfast show about emissions
trading listen
May 23
2007: CGE analysis by CoPS Director, Professor Philip Adams (right), informed a report
released by Victoria's Auditor-General. The report
called for better evidence to justify public funding of major events. Case studies of
Melbourne's Formula 1 Grand Prix concluded that the net social benefit of the event was
small or even negative. Recommendations included "investing in the use of computable
general equilibrium modelling for larger events at the post-event stage to assess their
impact on the economy."
April 2007
On 20 April 2007, CoPS hosted a Chinese delegation from Development Research Centre
(DRC) of the State Council, National Development and Reform Commission, State Information
Centre (SIC), and China Australia Governance Program of AUSAID. The delegation was headed
by Mr ZHANG Xiaochong, Director General of the International Cooperation Centre of the
National Development and Reform Commission. The purpose of the delegation's visit to
Australia was to investigate the process of public policy enquiries and debate.
During a half-day workshop, Dr Yinhua MAI introduced modelling, policy consulting and
training activities of CoPS. Professor Philip ADAMS presented "The Contribution of CGE
Modelling in Public Policy Debate in Australia". more
The economic impacts of an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for Australia was the topic
of Philip Adams' presentations at two public
forums arranged by the Melbourne Institute. The first, held in Melbourne, was also
addressed by Professor John Freebairn and Dr. Beth Webster and attracted around 100
attendees. The second, held in Canberra, also featured Professor Warwick McKibbin and had
around 160 attendees. The main conclusion of Adams' presentation is that an ETS, with a
C02-permit price of around $30 per tonne has the potential to significantly reduce
emissions from electricity generation with only a small reduction in real GDP. According
to Adams' modelling, in 2030 the ETS would cut electricity emissions by around 50 per
cent relative to basecase levels, and reduce real GDP by around 0.6 per cent relative to
base. The loss of GDP is equivalent to reducing average annual growth in GDP between now
and 2030 from, say, 3.00 per cent to 2.97 per cent.
After 24 years developing GEMPACK, Ken Pearson has reduced his commitment, moving
towards a part-time, research-oriented involvement. He has passed on the position of
Director, GEMPACK Software, to Mark Horridge, who will assume overall and day-to-day
responsibilities, assisted by Dr. Michael Jerie (software and support) and Louise Pinchen
(Business Manager). Ken will remain in the background to solve more difficult
problems.
CoPS in the news again: The Age newspaper has a story on exporting modelling
techniques to the USA here (local copy
here). Another Age report from 2 years ago is here.
Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer will visit Finland and Washington D.C.from March 16 to
April 20
Peter and Maureen will spend 2 weeks in Finland at the Government Institute for Economic
Research (VATT) . There they will assist Juha Honkatukia and Pekka Sulamaa in the
construction of a dynamic CGE model of Finland. Peter will present a seminar at VATT.
In Washington Peter and Maureen will interact with colleagues at the USITC on: the USAGE
model validation project; the implementation of a NAICS-based version of USAGE; and a
review of the USAGE model. They will meet with colleagues at the U.S. Department of
Agriculture to discuss: progress on creation of new detail for the agricultural sector;
and the implications of USDA forecasts for Agricultural prices on the benefits to the
U.S. of replacement of petroleum-based fuels with biomass-based fuels. They will also
meet with colleagues at the Department of Commerce to discuss a possible contract
associated with the President's recent announcements on Health policy.
March 2007
Dr. Chunto Tso and his team (Ms. Chihwei Wang and Mr. Hau Ju) of the Taiwan Institute
of Economic Research visited the Centre during the week starting 5 March. In
collaboration with Philip Adams and Mark Horridge, they are developing an energy-oriented
CGE model of Taiwan. The model, called Triple E, is based on the TAIGEM model and is
currently being used to examine the potential impacts of fuel cell motors for motor
scooters.
Congratulations to Mark Horridge on his appointment as Professor.
Monash MEMO has a story on Peter Dixon receiving the Sir John Monash Distinguished
Professorship link, local
copy here.
February 2007
Glyn Wittwer attended the 51st annual conference of the Australian Agricultural and
Resource Economics Society in Queenstown, New Zealand, in February. He presented a paper
entitled "CGE modelling of the resources boom in Indonesia and Australia using
TERM".
CoPs has announced details for its 2007 training courses.
As in the past there will be Practical GE Modelling and Data Base courses at Monash in
July. Unusually however, this year that will be followed by a course in single country
multi-regional modelling, at Monash in July, and again in a palace in Tuscany during September. A Dynamic course in
Washington is planned for late 2007. In past years our courses have been overbooked, so
inquire early.
Match report from the game between CoPS/EBS V La Trobe is now available at cricket.
CoPS is undergoing an external review -- a self-evaluation is available from here.
Peter Dixon has been awarded a Sir John Monash Distinguished Professorship. The
accolade is reserved for "eminent Professors of exceptional distinction who have made an
outstanding contribution to their field or discipline and/or to Monash University".
October 2006
Two CoPS students were awarded PhDs at the Monash Graduation
Ceremony held on the evening of 26 October. Dr Serajul Hoque's thesis describes the CGE
model of Bangladesh which he constructed. Serajul reports the results of illustrative
policy reforms he simulated with the model and analyses them in terms of major underlying
model mechanisms. Dr Daniel Pambudi constructed a multiregional CGE model, EMERALD, which
explicitly treats the behaviour of economic agents in 26 regions of Indonesia. Daniel
uses the model to analyse regional policy initiatives to attract investment.
Congratulations to both Serajul and Daniel.
Philip Adams gave a presentation on quantitative analysis of trade policies to a
training program organised by the Australian APEC studies center. The course , Policy Reform and Structural Adjustment in
Agriculture - Economic change in the Sugar Industry, was held between 24 October and
3 November and was attended by around 25 senior public servants from the Philippines,
Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.
CoPS goes to China In September, Peter Dixon, Yinhua Mai, Xiujian Peng,
Maureen Rimmer and Charles Xiao presented a 7 day course on dynamic CGE modelling for
forecasting and policy analysis at Hunan University. This followed a course presented
earlier in the year by CoPS on static CGE modelling. The dynamic course was attended by
about 30 people including staff and graduate students from Hunan and other universities
and several public servants from Beijing. (For more details on this item please visit our
Research Highlights page)
CoPS analyses President Bush's energy policy An important objective of the
President's energy policy is to cut U.S. reliance on imported crude oil. The President is
supporting research aimed at reducing the cost of biomass fuels (e.g. ethanol) so that
these fuels are competitive with petroleum.
In June this year, CoPS was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Commerce to estimate
the benefits to the U.S. economy that would follow from technological breakthroughs that
make ethanol competitive with petroleum when the price of crude oil is at its 2004 level.
(For a summary of this report please visit our Research Highlights
page)
Five new working papers are available for download. G-157,
G-158, G-159, G-160, and G-162.
Congratulations to Professor Ken Pearson who has just been made a Fellow of the
Academy of Social Sciences of Australia. Story in
Monash Memo
September 2006
Jill Harrison is retiring at the end of September. Jill has made huge contributions
to GEMPACK software, support and teaching. Her legacy will continue well into the future.
We wish her well as she begins the next phase of her life.
From September 3rd-16th, Glyn Wittwer and Mark Horridge visited CEDS, the Center for Economics and Development Studies at
Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Java. They worked with CEDS staff to refine the
INDOTERM CGE model of the Indonesian and West Java economies, built to study the national
and regional (West Java) impacts of national and regional economic policies. The model
was unveiled at a day-long seminar on 14th September, attended by more than 100 academics
and government officials (see picture). Simulations were
presented showing the effects of: allowing rice imports; growing bio-diesel fuel; and
changes in commodity prices. Funding for this project came from AusAid under the Public
Sector Linkages Program (PSLP).
The Centre of Policy Studies will conduct a training course in September 2006 on
dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling at the Hunan University in China.
The 7-day training course will be lectured by Professor Peter Dixon. The course also
contains intensive computing sessions that give trainees hands-on experience with CGE
modelling. Other instructors of the course are Dr Yinhua Mai, Dr Maureen Rimmer, Dr
Xiujian Peng and Charles Xiao. This course and an earlier course held in February 2006
are part of a joint research project between CoPS and the Hunan University. The aim of
the joint project is to help the Hunan University to build its CGE modelling capacities.
The training course will have about 30 trainees from the School of Economics and Trade,
the School of Statistics, and the School of Mathematics and Econometrics of the Hunan
University. Other course participants are from the Ministry of Commerce, State
Information Centre, Peking University, Najing Agricultural University, and Chinese
Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Mark Picton conducted research for Allen Consulting on the economy-wide effects of
government programs for the Australian pharmaceuticals sector. The research involved
examining the effects of changes in government policy taking into account the benefits to
the rest of the economy of having significant research and development in pharmaceuticals
within a balanced pharmaceuticals sector.
James Giesecke attended the two European regional economics conferences (the British
and Irish Section and European meetings of the Regional Science Association
International) where he presented papers on explaining economic outcomes for Australia's
regions through historical simulations with CGE models.
Philip Adams was interviewed by Korean TV in early September for a program examining
the possible effects of a Free-Trade Agreement between Korea and the United States.
Philip was asked to draw on CoPS' study of the Australia-US FTA to yield insights into
the possible impacts on Korea of eliminating barriers to US imports.
A leading group of academics from Taiwan visited the Centre in the last week of
August. The group, headed by Professor Chung-Huang Huang (National Tsing-Hua University),
included Professor Shih-Mo Lin (Chung-Yuan Christian University), Assistant Prof.
Han-Pang Su (Chung-Yuan Christian University), Assistant Prof. Hsing-Hua Lin (Ching-Yun
University) and Miss Chin-Wen Yang (Doctoral candidate, National Central University). The
program of work centred around further developments of the Taigem
model to incorporate renewable forms of electricity generation and to allow better
modelling of energy and greenhouse issues in Taiwan.
August 2006
Two pictures from the recent GTAP conference attended by Mark Horridge, Alan Powell,
Ken Pearson and Philip Adams. The first shows Horridge
and Adams teaching aspects of CES production theory to some interested onlookers. The
second shows what happens when you are overloaded and
your tyres are stripped back to the metal radial.
July 2006
Registration is now open for the 2006 USA Dynamic CGE modelling course. Information
June 2006
June 5 - The Centre of Policy Studies welcomes new staff
member Dr Michael Jerie. Michael joins CoPS from the Department of Mathematics at La
Trobe University. He takes up the position of Research Fellow (Software
Support/Developer).
A new PhD student, Louise Roos, started at CoPS in May. Louise's supervisor is John
Madden and her topic is a dynamic CGE model of South Africa. Two other new doctoral students commenced their studies at CoPS earlier this year.
Mahesh Roa, supervised by Tony Meagher, is examining structural change and the Australian
labour market. Charles Xiao transferred from the Department of Economics. His research
topic is a financial CGE model of China and his supervisors are Glyn Wittwer and Peter
Dixon.
Several CoPS staff will attend the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis,
held in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) this June.
Ken Pearson and Mark Horridge will present a paper on parallel
processing using modern PCs.
May 2006
Six new working papers added. G-150, G-153, G-154, G-155,
G-156 and C15-01.
April 2006
The 2005 Mollie Holman medal for the best Ph.D. thesis in the Faculty of Business and
Economics (BusEco) has been awarded to Xiujian Peng. For more details of this award
download thesis details.
March 2006
Philip Adams attended the Pacific Economic Co-operation Council's meeting of
forecasters in Osaka, Japan on 15-17 March. At the meeting Philip gave an invited
presentation on the impacts of rapid growth in China on Pacific rim economies,
highlighting the possibility that a booming Chinese economy might not be good for all
countries in the region.
CoPS has a vacancy for a Research Fellow/Senior Research Fellow (Software
Support/Developer). The position advertised here represents a rare opportunity for a
person with appropriate computing/software skills to join and play a valued role in this
highly regarded research centre. Applications close on 21 April 2006. For details, see
job description
February 2006
CoPS has conducted a training course in São Paulo, Brazil in conjunction with
the Departamento de Economia, USP [Universidade de São Paulo]. CoPS staff Mark
Horridge and James Giesecke worked with USP professors to deliver the course in English
and Portuguese, using a CGE model calibrated with Brazilian data. Most of the 20-odd
attendees were academics from various universities around Brazil. See Photos.
The 2006 GTAP South Asian Short Course was held at the Indira Gandhi Institute of
Development Research in Mumbai, India from February 18-24, 2006. There were 24
participants, including 9 from India, 2 from Pakistan, 1 from Bangladesh, 2 from Nepal, 2
from Sri Lanka, 2 from Australia, 3 from Egypt, 1 from Brazil, 1 from Madagascar and 1
from Canada.
Ken Pearson was one of the instructors at this course.
CoPS ran a Practical GE modelling course in Changsha, China, at Hunan University.
Participants included representatives from the university's colleges of Economics and
Trade, Mathematics and Econometrics and Statistics. There were also representatives from
the Bureau of Industry Injury Investigation at the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing, and
from industry. One participant came from Nanjing University and another from Beijing's
Institute of Agricultural Economics.
The course participants were of a very high calibre. This is the first part of an
expected long-term partnership with Hunan University and the Ministry of Commerce, to
develop in-house general equilibrium modelling expertise to apply to policy issues in
China. The course was viewed by all as an outstanding success.
CoPS representatives included YinHua Mai, Mark Picton and Glyn Wittwer, plus a Ph.D.
candidate Charles Xiao. A Ph.D. graduate from CoPS, Xiujian Peng, now at the University
of Adelaide, also contributed. See Photos.
The Centre of Policy Studies defeats La Trobe University by 50 runs. See match report and videos.
Ken Pearson departs for Mumbai on February 8 to help teach the South East Asian Short
Course in Global Trade Analysis.
An APA(I) PhD scholarship in economics is available in the Centre of Policy Studies
(CoPS) of Monash University as part of an ARC Linkage project with the Victorian
Department of Primary Industries and the Department of Sustainability and Environment.
See PhD scholarship for details.
Yin Hua Mai, Glyn Wittwer, Mark Picton and others depart for China early February
2006 to present the Practical GE Modelling course in Hunan University, Changsha.
January 2006
Mark Horridge and James Giesecke depart for Brazil late January 2006 to present the
Practical GE Modelling course in São Paulo,
Brazil.
Yin Hua Mai presented two papers at the 2005 Australia-China Agricultural Trade
Policy Dialogue held in China in November. One presentation focused on aspects of the MMC
model. The other examined the effects of reducing tariffs on wheat and rice in China.
While in China Yin Hua also gave a presentation at the Beijing Jinmao University about
CoPS' modelling capabilities.
CoPS has been successful in a funding application under the Public Sector Linkages
Program (PSLP) administered by the Australian Agency for International Development
(AusAID). The funding is for work in 2006 on "Economic Modelling Capacity Building to
Increase an Indonesian Regional Public University's Participation in National and
Regional Policy Making". The project's principal researcher is Mark Horridge, with
support from Alan A. Powell and Glyn Wittwer. Working in collaboration with staff from
Indonesia's UNPAD-CEDS the project aims to build, use, analyse and continually update an
applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Indonesian and West Java economies, and to
analyse the national and regional (West Java) impacts of national and regional economic
policies.
December 2005
Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer will be in Washington DC through most of November and
into early December working at the United States International Trade Commission (USITC)
on the development and application of the MONASH-USA model. Their work will conclude with
a course in dynamic general equilibrium modelling MORE INFORMATION. While in the US,
Peter and Maureen will be working with Ashley Winston, a CoPS researcher currently
stationed at the USITC.
Peter Dixon and Glyn Wittwer along with colleagues from the Victorian Department of
Primary Industries and Department of Sustainability and Environment have been awarded an
ARC linkage grant for funding in 2006-2008. The project involves embedding hydrological
detail into the TERM model, to obtain better estimates than previously available on the
regional and industrial impacts of different water scenarios. It is envisaged that the
new model will become a key tool for examining issues arising from COAG water reforms.
Louise Pinchen has taken on a new position as GEMPACK Business Manager. All enquiries
regarding purchasing GEMPACK Software, renewal of licences and payments should now be
made directly with her. Contact Louise Pinchen
November 2005
Mark Horridge has spent 2 weeks in Taipei at the Taiwan Institute of Economic
Research working with the TAIGEM-D dynamic general equilibrium model. The model was
expanded to allow for various renewable energy sources, such as ethanol, biodiesel, or
wind and solar power.
On October 27 James Giesecke delivered a paper to the University of South Australia
School of Commerce seminar series. The paper examined the impacts on the Australian
economy of structural, policy and external shocks over the period 1996/97 - 2001/02.
Tony Meagher and James Giesecke are undertaking a project for the Productivity
Commission, investigating the impact of increasing Australia's intake of skilled
migrants. The project is due to report in mid December.
CoPS is establishing a link with Hunan University, Changsha, China, and a division
within China's Ministry of Commerce. Glyn Wittwer visited Hunan University in October.
There, he met with Professor Lai Mingyong, Dean of the School of Economics and Trade and
the Deputy President (Research) of the university, Professor Zhao, who has signed an
agreement with CoPS. This will entail a CGE training program in Changsha in February
2006. Later modules of the project will include developing a dynamic CGE model of the
Chinese economy and assisting in the supervision of a number of a Ph.D. candidates at
Hunan University. Glyn gave a powerpoint presentation on CGE modelling to a keen group of
Ph.D. candidates, post-graduates and professors.
October 2005
SPECIAL COURSE ANNOUNCEMENT
From December 5 to 9, 2005 The Centre of Policy Studies will conduct a course in dynamic
general equilibrium modelling in Washington D.C. Hosted by the U.S.International Trade
Commission, the course will present dynamic general equilibrum modelling as a practical
tool for forecasting and policy analysis using an aggregated version of the USAGE model of the U.S. economy. MORE INFORMATION
September 2005
On September 13, 2005, Professor Peter B. Dixon gave a talk to University of
Melbourne Engineering students on Convergence of the Chinese economy. This paper is
available to download
August 2005
The United States International Trade Commission (USITC) has agreed to an extension
of the development funding for CoPS' US modeling program. The value of
funding for 2005 is in excess of $US 250,000. CoPS' US program is headed by Peter Dixon
and Maureen Rimmer, with assistance from Ashley Winston.
Most of CoPS' short-courses in CGE modeling have now been scheduled. Details can be
found on the course page.
Preliminary agreement has been reached on a major new program of joint research and
PhD supervision between the Centre and Hunan University in China. More details soon.
A new milestone in solving very large CGE models: COPS solved an unaggregated version
of the GTAP world model (87 regions, 57 sectors) using an experimental Windows 64-bit
version of its GEMPACK software.
July 2005
GEMPACK software and MONASH-style models have been listed among the ten most
remarkable discoveries from research at Monash University, as published in the Age on
June 20, 2005 (Education supplement).
June 2005
Philip Adams, Mark Horridge and Professor Jan van Heerden (University of Pretoria)
conducted a week-long course in CGE modeling in early June at the University of Pretoria,
South Africa. The course, which focused on the UpGem model of South Africa, was part of a
MCom degree in
International Trade and Investment sponsored by the Carnegie Foundation. Twelve students
from a wide range of African countries attended.
The Centre of Policy Studies conducted a Practical GE Course - The CoPS Way in
Lubeck, Germany from June 12 to 16. We intend to make the European course an annual
event. The participants included our usual mix of academic and government employees.
These included two Ph.D. students (one from Ukraine, the other Albania) being supervised
by Professor Johannes Brocker, a recent visitor to CoPS from the Christian-Albrechts
University of Kiel. Other participants came from Denmark, Ethiopia, France, Finland,
Japan and the Netherlands. Some photos.
Eight members of staff from the Centre attended the 8th Annual
Conference on Global Economic Analysis held in Lübeck, Germany on June 9 - 11.
The conference was organized by the Institute of Market Analysis and Agricultural Trade
Policy (FAL), Braunschweig, Germany in conjunction with the Center for Global Trade
Analysis, Purdue University. Papers presented by CoPS staff covered a wide range of
topics, including applications of the MONASH-USA model, details of recent
software developments, and analyses of recent economic history. Some photos.
May 2005
Release 9 (April 2005) of GEMPACK is now available and has
been shipped to customers with continuing support and free upgrades.
Philip Adams presented a paper titled "Linking
models: Experience from the IMPACT Project and CoPS" to a workshop held at the
Melbourne Institute on Monday 9 May. The workshop's theme was "The next generation:
Building a bridge between microsimulation, life-cycle, and macroeconomic models". Other
speakers included members of the MITTS team (Melbourne Institute), Nicolas Herault
(University of Bordeaux), Phil Gallagher (Australian Treasury) and Gavin Wood (RMIT).
Contact Philip Adams. Link to
Workshop
April 2005
On 18 April, Prime Minister John Howard and Premier Wen Jiabao of China agreed that
Australia and China will commence negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) following
consideration of the joint FTA Feasibility Study. The FTA Feasibility Study was completed
in March 2005, and concluded that there would be significant economic benefits for both
Australia and China through the negotiation of an FTA. Much of the analytical content of
the Study came from an especially commissioned report from CoPS. CoPS' report can be
downloaded from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade's website at
http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/china/fta/index.html. Contact Philip Adams for further details.
A listing of contract research undertaken by CoPS in 2004, along with copies of
selected reports, has been added to our web site. Click here to
see a list of our 2004 work as well as work completed in previous years.
The Mollie Holman Medal for Excellence is awarded annually in each faculty at Monash
University to the PhD candidate judged to have presented the best thesis of the year. For
2004, the Faculty of Business and Economics' Medal has been awarded to Paresh Narayan for
his PhD thesis 'An Econometric Model of Tourism Demand and a Computable General
Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Tourism: The Case of the Fiji Islands'. Paresh was
supervised jointly int the Centre of Policy Studies by Professors Dixon and Adams and in
the Department of Econometrics by Professor Farshid Vahid. Paresh is the second CoPS
student to be awarded a Mollie Holman Medal. The 2001 recipient was Gordon Schmidt,
supervised by Professor Dixon.
March 2005
Despite fielding strongest team in years, CoPS lose to old foes in Thirty30 match.
Match report.
A new postgraduate student, Unchana Beadnok, started with CoPS at the end of March,
having transferred from the Department of Economics. Unchana has completed one year of a
Masters degree and intends to upgrade shortly to PhD candidature. Her supervisors are Dr
Yin-Hua Mai and Associate Professor John Madden.
February 2005
CoPS has been commissioned by the South African Department of Agriculture to
undertake a study of the economic impacts of a proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
between the SACU nations and India. This work continues our involvement with the South
African government which started in 2003 with a study of the proposed FTA between SACU
and the USA.
Peter Dixon has been invited to give a keynote address at the IMCP Workshop on 23-24
February to be held at the German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin. The topic of
Peter's address is the "Theory and Empirics of Technological Change".
A new PhD student, Sothea Oum from Cambodia started at the Centre in February.
Sothea, who is supervised by Philip Adams, will be constructing a CGE model of the
Cambodian economy and using it to examine trade issues affecting that nation and the
surrounding region.
The latest round of forecasts from the Labour market forecasting service are being
prepared and will be released to clients at the end of the month.
Another Practical GE training course was successfully completed in February. As for
the past few years, the course was fully subscribed with a number of overseas
attendees.
CoPS holds on for thrilling 1 run win of La Trobe University in Thirty30 match.
Match report.
January 2005
The major new features in Release 9 of GEMPACK (expected
around April 2005) were announced recently by the GEMPACK developers.
Serajul Hoque, a PhD student supervised by Peter Dixon and John Madden, presented a
paper to the Asia Pacific Week held at the ANU, Canberra, 31 January - 4 February 2005.
Serajul's paper was entitled "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Bangladesh: A CGE
Analysis".
Ashley Winston left just before Christmas to spend 12 months at the United States
International Trade Commission (USITC). During his visit, sponsored by the USITC, Ashley
will be working with USITC researchers on further development of the MONASH-USA
model.
December 2004
The Centre for Health Economics, together with the Centre of Policy Studies (Monash
University), and NATSEM (University of Canberra), have recently been awarded a $3.5
million NHMRC Health Services Research grant for 'Modelling the economics of the
Australian health care system for policy analysis'. The five year program will build a
suite of economic models capable of providing timely relevant analysis of almost any
major health policy option or issue, providing expertise in government and academia to
use the kind of sophisticated quantitative tools of analysis common in sectors of the
economy of an equivalent size to health. Through a PhD and postdoctoral program, it will
increase capacity in quantitative health economics in Australia to answer key questions
in health services, health promotion and illness prevention, developed with partners in
government, clinicians and industry.
Philip Adams and Mark Horridge each presented invited papers to overseas conferences
in December. Philip attended the Pacific Economic Co-Operation Forecasters group in
Vancouver, presenting a paper examining the short-term macroeconomic prospects of the
Australian economy. From December 2-4, Mark attended a conference in the Hague on the
Implications of the Doha Agenda for World Trade and Poverty, presenting (with former CoPS
vistitor Joaquim Bento) a paper about the effect of trade reform on income distribution
in Brazil.
Gouranga Gopal DAS (PhD Monash 2000), who is an Assistant Professor at Hanyang
University in South Korea, has just received an award for 2005 under the Visiting
Scholars Program of the IMF and the GDN (Global Development Network). The award will
allow him to spend five weeks in Washington working at the IMF on his research project
entitled: "Configurations of Trade policy, Technology Transmission and Poverty Reduction:
South-South Cooperation with Special Focus on India as Southern Hemispheric Hub". Receipt
of this award represents significant achievement - a maximum of five awards is made each
year from applicants in a world-wide competition.
November 2004
Glyn Wittwer gave an invited presentation to the Productivity Commission's conference
on "Quantitative tools for microeconomic policy analysis" held at the Hyatt hotel,
Canberra, 17-18 November. Glyn's paper focussed on his work of integrating physical water
accounts into a CGE model.
CoPS' annual Monash model course started on 22 November and
finished on 30 November. Of the 16 participants, 4 are from overseas, while the remainder
come from a mix of federal and state government departments and from private sector
consulting groups.
Philip Adams gave an invited paper to the 2004 Australian Agri-Food Forum held at the
Grand Hyatt, Melbourne on Friday 29 October. The paper, entitled "The Year Ahead",
generated considerable discussion and was reported in an Age newspaper article. Philip
also gave an invited lecture to the APEC Study Centre's training course "Managing
structural adjustment from trade reform" held on 11-19 November at the Saville on
Russell. The title of that presentation was "The role of quantitative analysis in
assessing the economy-wide effects of industry adjustment to policy reform".
The Centre for Health Economics, together with the Centre of Policy Studies (Monash
University), and NATSEM (University of Canberra), have recently been awarded a $3.5
million NHMRC Health Services Research grant for 'Modelling the economics of the
Australian health care system for policy analysis'. The five year program will build a
suite of economic models capable of providing timely relevant analysis of almost any
major health policy option or issue, providing expertise in government and academia to
use the kind of sophisticated quantitative tools of analysis common in sectors of the
economy of an equivalent size to health. Through a PhD and postdoctoral program, it will
increase capacity in quantitative health economics in Australia to answer key questions
in health services, health promotion and illness prevention, developed with partners in
government, clinicians and industry.
Professor Jan van Heerden, Head of the Department of Economics, University of
Pretoria is visiting the Centre for one month starting in the middle of November. Jan is
collaborating with Mark Horridge on several projects involving modelling of the South
African economy.
An article entitled "Prospects for the Australian economy and the impact of meeting
the Kyoto commitment, authored by Philip Adams has been accepted for publication in The
Farm Policy Journal. Release date is set for December.
Ashley Winston has submitted his PhD thesis for examination. Since submitting Ashley
has been promoted to a level-B research position at the Centre. He leaves in December on
a 12-month secondment to the USITC in Washington.
Daniel Pambudi, a PhD student supervised by Mark Horridge, presented a paper to the
2004 PhD conference in Economics and business held at the ANU, 10-12 November. Daniel's
paper was entitled "Subsidy Variations to attract investors using EMERALD, a
multi-regional CGE model of Indonesia". At the same conference, Peter Dixon was an
invited discussant and a student associated with the Centre, Xiujian Peng, gave a paper
examining the effects of population change in China.
October 2004
Dates for the 2005 series of Practical GE modelling training
courses have been announced. We are offering these courses from February 7 to 15,
2005. Registrations are now open. We will also be offering The Practical GE Modelling
course in Lübeck (Germany) in June. The Lübeck course is planned to take place
just after, and in the same hotel as, the
GTAP conference (8th Annual Conference on Global
Economic Analysis) to be held from June 9th to 11th, 2005.
The Centre hosted three Chinese visitors in the second half of October. Mingtai Fan,
Ronglin Li and Zhaoyang Zheng visited as part of the DFAT-funded project examining the
economic costs and benefits of a FTA between China and Australia.
Peter Dixon and James Gieseke presented papers at the "The State-of-the-Art in
Regional and Urban Modelling", conference co-organised by the EcoMod Network and Centro
de Estudios Andaluces. The conference was held in Sevilla Spain on 21, 22 and 23 October.
Peter's paper, co-authored with Maureen Rimmer, was entitled "Disaggregation of results
from a detailed general equilibrium model of the US to the state level". James' paper,
co-authored with John Madden, was entiled "Advances in large-scale multiregional CGE
modelling: historical, forecasting and scenario analysis".
September 2004
Three articles written by Peter Dixon and CoPS' co-authors have been published in the
September 2004 editions of The Economic Record (volume 80, number 250 and volume 80,
Special issue). One article, co-authored with Mark Picton and Maureen Rimmer, examines
the economic impacts of changes in payroll-tax thresholds. Another paper, co-authored
with Maureen Rimmer, describes historical and decompostion simulations for 1992-1998 with
the 500-sector MONASH-USA model. The third article with Dixon
as the sole author is a book review of "Selected Essays on Economic Policy" by Geoff
Harcourt.
James Giesecke presented a paper to the School of Economics and Finance seminar at
the Victoria University of Wellington. The paper reported results from the latest MONASH
historical/decomposition simulations, which cover the period 1996/97 - 2001/02. These
simulations first evaluate the extent of recent structural changes in the Australian
economy, and then explain the recent history of the Australian economy in terms of these
structural changes.
Glyn Wittwer is in China most of September on a mixture of holidays and work. During
his stay Glyn will be discussing with Chinese authorities the potential for a
collaborative program of model-based research.
The Centre of Policy Studies and the Department of Treasury and Finance co-hosted the
Fourth Biennial Regional Modelling Workshop on 16 and 17 of
September. Held at the Victorian Treasury's conference room, the worksop was attended by
35 invitees from most Australian states and territories.
August 2004
A paper titled "Medium term prospects for the Australian economy and the impact of
Kyoto-compliance" authored by Philip Adams was released at the end of August. The paper
is published in the Australian Bulletin of Labour, Vol. 30, No. 1 (March).
Philip Adams is to be a keynote speaker at the First International Macroeconomic
Forecasters Conference hosted by the Thailand Office of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, Bangkok. The conference takes place on August 26 and 27.
Hiroshi Hamasaki from the Economic Research Centre of the Fujitsu Research Institute,
Tokyo, visited the Centre for one week in the middle of August. Hiroshi is collaborating
with Mark Horridge on a project to build a dynamic multi-sector model of Japan.
John Madden and James Giesecke are both presenting papers at the European Regional
Science Association meeting which is being held in Porto Portugal at the end of August.
John holds one of six elected positions on the International Council of the Regional
Science Association International.
Dates for the 2005 series of Practical GE modelling training
courses have been announced. We are offering these courses from February 7 to 15,
2005. Registrations are now open. We will also be offering The Practical GE Modelling
course in Lübeck (Germany) in June. The Lübeck course is planned to take place
just after, and in the same hotel as, the
GTAP conference (8th Annual Conference on Global
Economic Analysis) to be held from June 9th to 11th, 2005.
July 2004
Ken Pearson leaves at the end of the month for the USA. While there Ken will be
providing modelling advice and software assistance at the 12th Annual Short
Course in Global Trade Analysis held at Purdue University.
Six new working papers have been released. Four are
authored by Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer and detail developments of the MONASH-USA
model. The remaining two describe applications of a dynamic version of GTAP developed at
the Centre by Mark Horridge and Philip Adams.
Professor Chu Yugang from The Institute of Economics, Hubei Academy of Social Science
in China is visiting CoPS from 1 July to 3 December 2004.
Three second-semester faculty units taught by CoPS staff begin in the third week of
July: ECC5730: Advanced applied general equilibrium analysis taught by Peter Dixon;
ECC3810: Public finance taught by Mark Picton; and ETC4430 Quantitative Economic Policy
taught by John Madden.
An article quoting Peter Dixon appears in The Australian on 12 July. The article on
page 2 deals with a FOI legal case against Treasurer Peter Costello's refusal to release
documents relating to tax issues such as bracket creep. Dixon argues that the release of
the information would allow economists to check the Government's claims about its
economic management.
Macro-economy forecasts from Philip Adams are reported on pages 1 and 3 of The Age's
business section of 12 July.
The United States International Trade Commission
releases a major report, "The Economic Effects of Significant US Import Restraints". The
quantified effects were generated using the USAGE-ITC model developed at the Centre of
Policy Studies. Lead researchers in the development of USAGE are Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer.
Major changes at the top: Peter Dixon has stepped down as Director to take up the new
full-time position of Principal Researcher; Ken Pearson has stepped down as Deputy
Director to spend more time on the development of GEMPACK.
Philip Adams takes over as Director and John Madden as Deputy Director.
The Centre has been successful in the tender bid for providing economic modelling
analysis for the Australia-China FTA Feasibility Study conducted by the Department of
Foreign Affairs and Trade. CoPS' work will involve model development and application,
training for Chinese co-modellers and software provision. The lead researcher is YinHua Mai.
Mid-year practical GE modelling training courses begin. The courses are fully
subscribed with 30 people attending the GE course and 15 people attending the
second-week's data base course.
Starting in July Tony Meagher will be travelling to most major capital cities
presenting his labour market forecasts to clients of the forecasting service.
June 2004
James Giesecke completed teaching of the first semester course "Applied General
Equilibrium Economics". This is a third-year course taught by the Centre of Policy
Studies for the Department of Economics. Typically, around 30 students are enrolled.
Dr Laurent Cretegny from the Department of Economics, Lausanne, Switzerland completed
his 12-month stay at CoPS. During his time here Laurent prepared a number of papers based
on his PhD thesis for publication. Laurent also found time to travel widely with his wife
and two children.
Glyn Wittwer has commenced a three-year project funded by the Grape and Wine Research
and Development Corporation. This will entail updating global statistics on grape and
wine production, and consumption and international trade of wine. TERM will be used to
analyse the impact of rapid wine industry growth over the past decade on regional
Australia. And the database of global wine model developed in part by Glyn will be
updated for analysis.
Janine Jensen, a PhD Candidate from Trinity College in Dublin, started a 12-month
stay. During her time here Janine will be constructing a dynamic CGE model of Ireland
with special emphasis on environmental factors.
Peter Dixon, Alan Powell, Maureen Rimmer, Yin Hua Mai and Ashley Winston head to
Washington DC to present papers at the seventh Annual conference on Global Economic
Analysis. Alan also attended the GTAP Board meeting which was held prior to the
conference.
May 2004
Ken Pearson and Mark Horridge were instructors at a GTAP training course in Buenos
Aires hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank and the Center for Global Trade
Analysis. 30 participants from 10 South American countries learnt how to use the GTAP CGE
model to simulate the effects of trade deals and other policy changes.
Mark Horridge and Philip Adams delivered a modelling training course at the
University of the Western Cape, South Africa, The course, which was funded through the
Carnegie Foundation, provided training in the use of a single-country South African model
to students from countries such as Nigeria, Cameroon and Rwanda.
Professor Tom Rutherford from the University of Colorado returned to the US after
spending 12 months at CoPS as a visiting scholar. During his stay Tom, in collaboration
with Mark Horridge, Ken Pearson and Laurant Cretegny, developed new software that allows
MPSGE models to be solved using GEMPACK.
April 2004
Jill Harrison and Ken Pearson release an early version of GEMPACK version 9 to CoPS
workers. The new version will go on sale after several months of in-house testing.
Mark Horridge and Philip Adams delivered a two-week GTAP training course at the
University of Pretoria, South Africa. AusAid funded the course. Fifteen people from
several countries attended.
John Madden attended the World Conference of the Regional Science Association
International at Port Elizabeth in South Africa. He presented two papers entitled,
"Regional Adjustment to Globalisation: Developing a CGE Analytical Framework" and "A
Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Framework for Analysing Adjustment Pressures
in South Africa". John also attended a meeting of the Association's International Council
of which he is an elected member.
TERM (The Enormous Regional Model created by Mark Horridge) is now running in dynamic
mode. It has a variable aggregation capability. Labour market adjustment within the model
occurs at the regional level. Glyn Wittwer is currently using dynamic TERM for projects
with Plant Health Australia and Geoscience Australia.
Mark Horridge travelled to Piracicaba, Brazil to begin a two-month visit. During his
stay he worked with Joaquim Bento of the Escola Superor de Agricultural Luiz de Queiroz,
Universidade de Sao Paulo, to link a multi-regional CGE model of Brazil with a large
dataset containing characteristics of 250,000 individuals.
March 2004
James Giesecke continues data collection and model development as part of a large
ARC-funded grant to explore the forces behind historical change in the Australia
economy.
Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer continue development of a large dynamic model of the
US economy. The work is assisted by a grant from the US International Trade
Commission.
February 2004
The first practical GE training course to be held at the start of the year finishes.
The course was fully subscribed, with a large group from mainland China in
attendance.
Older
CoPS Director Professor Peter Dixon receives Economic Society of Australia 2003
Distinguished Fellow Award (acceptance speeches).
On Friday 1 August 2003 CoPS hosted a one-day regional conference entitled The City and The Bush.
During the last week of October 2007,
Philip Adams and Mark Horridge presented a course in Trade Modelling at the University of
Pretoria (UP). The course was hosted by the AFRINEM
(African Institute for Economic Modelling) project at UP.
May 23
2007: CGE analysis by CoPS Director, Professor Philip Adams (right), informed a report
released by Victoria's Auditor-General. 
Two CoPS students were awarded PhDs at the Monash Graduation
Ceremony held on the evening of 26 October. Dr Serajul Hoque's thesis describes the CGE
model of Bangladesh which he constructed. Serajul reports the results of illustrative
policy reforms he simulated with the model and analyses them in terms of major underlying
model mechanisms. Dr Daniel Pambudi constructed a multiregional CGE model, EMERALD, which
explicitly treats the behaviour of economic agents in 26 regions of Indonesia. Daniel
uses the model to analyse regional policy initiatives to attract investment.
Congratulations to both Serajul and Daniel.
