Third Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
June 27-30, 2000
Monash University, Australia
19.00 Opening Reception
The conference will be opened by Professor Peter Darvall,
Deputy Vice-Chancellor and Vice-President (Research and Development),
Monash University.
19.45 Dinner
8.45-10.15 Plenary session Major Model Developments
Chair: Ken Pearson, Monash University
Peter Dixon, Monash University
An Overview of MONASH
[Joint paper with Maureen Rimmer]
Tom Hertel, Purdue University
Recent Developments in Global Economic Modeling using
GTAP
Discussant: Will Martin, World Bank
10.15-10.45 Coffee Break
10.45-12.15 Parallel Sessions 1
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 3 papers.
Each paper is allocated 20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Agricultural Trade I
Chair: Brian Parmenter
Frank van Tongeren
Review of Agricultural Trade Models: An Assessment of
Models with
EU Policy Relevance
[Joint paper with many others]
Chantal Nielsen
Genetic Engineering and Trade: Panacea or Dilemma for
Developing Countries
[Joint paper with Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder]
Erinc Yeldan
An Inter-Temporal, Multi-Region General Equilibrium Model of
Agricultural
Trade Liberalization in the South Mediterranean NIC's, Turkey and the European Union
[Joint paper with Ali Bayar and Xinhsen Diao]
Session B: China I
Chair: Mark Horridge
Arjan Lejour
China and the WTO; The Impact on China and the World
Economy
Terrie Walmsley
China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything
[Joint paper with Tom Hertel]
Fan Zhai
The Implications of Accession to WTO on China's Economy
[Joint paper with Shantong Li]
12.15-13.45 Lunch
13.45-15.15 Parallel Sessions 2
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 3 papers.
Each paper is allocated 20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Agricultural Trade II
Chair: Peter Dixon
Tom Hertel
Partial Liberalization of the World Sugar Market: A General
Equilibrium Analysis of
Tariff-Rate Quota Regimes
[Joint paper with Aziz Elbehri, Merlinda Ingco and Ken Pearson]
Kym Anderson
Potential Gains from Trade Reform in the New Millennium
[Joint paper with Joe Francois, Tom Hertel, Bernard Hoekman and Will Martin]
Sherman Robinson
North American Farm Programs and the WTO
[Joint paper with Mary Burfisher and Karen Thierfelder]
Session B: Greenhouse
Chair: Maureen Rimmer
Rob Dellink
Dynamics in an Applied General Equilibrium Model with
Pollution and Abatement
Johannes Bollen
Decomposing Carbon Leakage - an Analysis of the Kyoto
Protocol
[Joint paper with Ton Manders and Hans Timmer]
Brian Parmenter
Analysis of Greenhouse Policy using MMRF-GREEN
[Joint paper with Philip Adams and Mark Horridge]
15.15-15.45 Coffee Break
15.45-16.45 Parallel Sessions 3
Three parallel sessions. Each contains 3 papers.
Each paper is allocated 15 minutes for presentation and 5 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Human Capital, GTAP Data and Infotech
Chair: Philip Adams
Guido van Steen
Accumulation of Human Capital in Developing Regions
Betina Dimaranan and Robert McDougall
GTAP 5: A Large-Scale Data Base Construction
Project
Yongkyu Kim
The Economic Importance of the Information and
Communications
Technology (ICT) Industry in Korea: A CGE Approach
[Joint paper with Seog-Woong Moon and Dong-Pyo Hong]
Session B: Trade Liberalisation and Distribution Margins
Chair: Maureen Rimmer
Peter Wobst
Devaluation Under Decreasing Marketing Margins Through
Infrastructure Investment
Scott Bradford
Paying the Price: The Welfare Effects of Trade Barriers and
Inflated
Distribution Margins in OECD Countries
Piyush Tiwari
A Computational General Equilibrium Analysis of the
Efficiency
Effects of Ports in Japan
[Joint paper with Masayuki Doi and Hidekazu Itoh]
Session C: Trade: Africa and Europe
Chair: Brian Parmenter
Susanna Wolf
From Preferences to Reciprocity: General Equilibrium Effects of
a Free Trade Area Between the EU and the UEMOA
Leena Kerkela
Renegotiating the Lome Convention - Trade Policy Schemes and
their Effects for African Regions
[Joint paper with Janne Niemi and Risto Vaittinen]
Marcelle Thomas
Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Zimbabwe: A CGE
Analysis
[Joint paper with Romeo Bautista]
17.00-18.30 Plenary session Issues in Trade Policy
Chair: Tom Hertel
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, World Bank
A New Perspective on Wages and Globalization
[Joint paper with David Roland-Holst]
Hans van Meijl, Wageningen-UR Agricultural Economics Research Institute LEI, The
Netherlands
The Agenda 2000 CAP Reform, World Prices and URAA
GATT-WTO
Export Constraints
[Joint paper with Frank van Tongeren]
Discussant: Richard Snape, Productivity Commission
19.00-19.45 Wine Tasting
19.45 Dinner
8.45-10.15 Plenary session Practical Aspects of GE Modelling
Chair: Peter Dixon
Robert McDougall, Purdue University
An International Services Trade Data Set for CGE
Modelers
Mark Horridge, Monash University
AnalyseGE: Software Assisting Modellers in the Analysis of
their Results
[Joint paper with Ken Pearson and Tom Hertel]
Discussant: Frank van Tongeren, Wageningen-UR Agricultural Economics Research Institute LEI, The Netherlands
10.15-10.45 Coffee Break
10.45-12.15 Parallel Sessions 1
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 3 papers.
Each paper is allocated 20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Demand Systems and Parameter Estimation
Chair: Mark Horridge
Channing Arndt
Estimating Trade Elasticities for GTAP: A Maximum Entropy
Approach
[Joint paper with Jing Liu and Tom Hertel]
Wusheng Yu
Integrating the AIDADS Demand System into the GTAP Model
[Joint paper with Tom Hertel, James Eales and Paul Preckel]
Kim Martin Lind
Estimating Food Demand Behaviour - The Case of India
[Joint paper with Soren Elkjaer Frandsen]
Session B: Methodological Developments
Chair: Ken Pearson
Ronald Wendner
Heterogenous Capital and Fixed Investment Shares in
Multi-Sector Dynamic CGE Modeling
[Joint paper with Karl Farmer]
Kevin Hanslow
A General Welfare Decomposition for CGE Models
Robert Waschik
A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Endogenous
Coalition Formation
in Trading Blocs
[Joint paper with Timothy Fisher]
12.15-13.45 Lunch
13.45-15.15 Parallel Sessions 2
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 4 papers.
Each paper is allocated 15 minutes for presentation and 5 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Greenhouse
Chair: Maureen Rimmer
Chung-Huang Huang
Baseline Forecasting for Greenhouse Gas Reductions with the
TAIGEM Model
[Joint paper with Ping-Cheng Li, Hsing-Hua Lin, Shih-Mo Lin and Shih-Hsun
Hsu]
Shih-Hsun Hsu
Energy Substitution in CGE Modeling Using the "Technology
Bundle" Approach:
The Case of Taiwan
[Joint paper with Ping-Cheng Li and Chung-Huang Huang]
Sharn Enzinger
Greenhouse and La Trobe Valley Energy
Huey-Lin Lee
Energy-using Consumer Durables in a CGE Model of Taiwan:
The Case of Motor Vehicles
Session B: Trade Liberalisation and Developing Countries
Chair: Philip Adams
Erly Cardoso Teixeira
Impacts of MERCOSUL, AFTA and WTO Round Agreements on the
Economies of Argentina, Brazil and Chile
[Joint paper with Sebastiao Renato Valverde]
Rajesh Chadha
Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay
Round and the
Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations
[Joint paper with Drusilla Brown, Alan Deardorff and Robert Stern]
Rina Oktaviani
The Impct of APEC Trade Liberalisation on the Indonesian
Economy
and Agricultural Sector
[Joint paper with Ross Drynan]
Mahinda Siriwardana
Effects of Trade Liberalisation in South Asia with Special
Reference to Sri Lanka
15.15-15.45 Coffee Break
15.45-16.45 Parallel Sessions 3
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 2 papers.
Each paper is allocated 20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Labour Market
Chair: Frank van Tongeren
Tony Meagher
Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market
Forecasting
[Joint paper with Philip Adams and Mark Horridge]
Maureen Rimmer
A Wage-Tax Policy to Increase Employment
[Joint paper with Peter Dixon]
Session B: Trade in Services
Chair: Philip Adams
Kevin Hanslow
The Structure of the FTAP Model
Xiao-guang Zhang
Sectoral Impacts of Liberalising Trade in Services
[Joint paper with George Verikios]
17.00-18.30 Plenary session Macroeconomic Aspects of GE Modelling
Chair: Brian Parmenter, Monash University
Finn Tarp, University of Copenhagen
A Standard Bank-Fund Projection Framework with CGE Features
[Joint paper with Henning Tarp Jensen]
Short presentation from each of:
Peter Dixon, Robert McDougall and Warwick McKibbin
Discussant: Sherman Robinson, IFPRI
19.30 Conference Dinner
After Dinner Speaker: Alan Powell
8.50-9.50 Parallel Sessions 1
Three parallel sessions. Each contains 3 papers.
Each paper is allocated 15 minutes for presentation and 5 minutes for discussion.
Session A: Methodology/Environment
Chair: Mark Horridge
Shih-Mo Lin
Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecasting Using
State Space and
Dynamic CGE Models
[Joint paper with Ping-Cheng Li, Shih-Hsun Hsu and Chung-Huang Huang]
Hsiang-Ling Han
New GE Approach to Evaluate Technologies Contributing to
Economic
Growth and Reducing Global Warming
Hom Pant
Measurement and Decomposition of Welfare Changes in GTEM
[Joint paper with Stephen Brown, Benjamin Buetre and Vivek Tulpule]
Session B: Trade
Chair: Philip Adams
Allan Rae
Multilateral Approaches to Market Access Negotiations in
Agriculture: Processed
Food Trade and Developing Countries
[Joint paper with Tim Josling]
Gouranga Gopal Das
Embodied Technology Transfer via International Trade and
Disaggregation
of Labour Payments by Skill Level: A Quantitative Analysis in GTAP Framework
Mingtai Fan
The Impact of China's Trade Liberalization for WTO Accession -
A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
[Joint paper with Yuxin Zheng]
Session C: Europe
Chair: Ken Pearson
Laurent Cretegny
Swiss Agricultural Policy: A Public Good Approach in a CGE
Framework
Dean Spinanger
Germany and Industrial Tariff Reductions: Partial and GE
Analysis
of What Didn't Happen in Seattle
[Joint paper with Joseph Francois and Hans Glismann]
H. Guyomard
AGE Assessment of CAP Reform: Implications of Policy
Modeling Choices
[Joint paper with A. Gohin and C. Le Mouel]
10.00-11.00 Parallel Sessions 2
Two parallel sessions. Each contains 2 papers.
Each paper is allocated 20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for discussion.
Session A: China II
Chair: Peter Dixon
Will Martin
Modeling the Impact of China's Accession to the WTO
[Joint paper with Elena Ianchovichina and Emiko Fukase]
Yongzheng Yang
GTAP-Based Comparative Static Macroeconomics: An Application to
China's Policy Options
[Joint paper with Rod Tyers]
Session B: Technology Spillovers
Chair: Frank van Tongeren
Hiro Lee
Trade and Transmission of Endogenous Growth Effects: Japanese
Economic Reform as an Externality for East Asian Economies
[Joint paper with David Roland-Holst]
Arjan Lejour
Openness, Growth and R&D Spillovers: Uncovering the
Missing Link?
[Joint paper with Richard Nahuis]
11.00-11.30 Coffee Break
11.30-13.00 Plenary session Practical Policy Analysis
Chair: Brian Parmenter, Monash University
Panel Discussion. Panel members are:
Praveen Dixit (USA: United States Department of Agriculture)
Vince FitzGerald (Australia: Allen Consulting Group; formerly Secretary,
Department of Employment, Education and Training)
Akira Kawamoto (Japan: MITI)
Richard Snape (Australia: Productivity Commission)
13.00-14.30 Lunch
15.00 Buses leave
Buses will leave the conference centre for the city at 15.00 sharp.
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