The Centre of Policy Studies
and the IMPACT Project
The Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), incorporating the Impact Project, specializes in
computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. CoPS undertakes academic/contract research and software development, conducts training courses in CGE modelling and offers graduate student supervision.
MONASH, a detailed, dynamic CGE model of Australia,
has been used to analyse many economic policies, including changes in taxes, tariffs,
environmental regulations and competition policy. MONASH simulations also underlie
detailed forecasts of labour market demand and income distribution.
MMRF, a dynamic CGE model of Australia's states and
territories, has been used for a wide range of applications including analyses of
greenhouse issues. MMRF3 is the latest version of the model and has been used recently in
the analysis of the Potential Benefits of the National Reform Agenda.
TERM, a new highly disaggregated model of 57 Australian
sub-state regions, is a useful tool for examining the impacts of shocks that affect
specific regions, e.g., drought.
CoPS has taken its modelling techniques overseas, completing projects in South Africa,
Brazil, Taiwan, Thailand, China and other countries. MONASH-USA, a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model
of the US economy, is being developed in collaboration with the US International Trade
Commission. A simpler single-country model called ORANI-G has
been created as a pattern on which to base models of other countries.
CoPS modelling relies on the GEMPACK software, developed at
the unit, and used in over 400 other locations in 60 countries.
CoPS runs several training courses in CGE modelling each
year. These courses are aimed at those who need background in CGE modelling to work with
results from CGE models like ORANI-G and MONASH, or who wish to use GEMPACK to
build their own models.
CoPS news
CoPS in China: In late March 2008, Peter Dixon, Yinhua Mai, Xiujian Peng and Maureen
Rimmer presented another course on dynamic CGE modelling for forecasting and policy
analysis at Hunan University. This was followed by a 2-day course on techniques for
producing CGE databases, presented by Glyn Wittwer and Mark Horridge. Background to the
Hunan activities may be found here. Mai, Wittwer and Horridge
then travelled to Beijing, where they worked for 3 days with the State Information Centre
(SIC), and presented a seminar at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Several SIC
staff will visit CoPS for 2 weeks during May.
CoPS in the press: Economic modelling of the nine years to 2006 by James Giesecke and
John Madden indicates that the Sydney Olympics did not bring the expected stimulus to
foreign tourism.
[link here].
CoPS in the press: Peter Dixon criticizes the proposal to allocate C02-emission
permits to existing polluters. [link here].
Working Paper No. G-172 Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing, by James
Giesecke and G.A. Meagher (abstract and download) is now
available
CoPS/BusEco retained the prestigious Cricket Shield in another closely fought battle
with LaTrobe this summer. Read all about the thrills and spills in this match report.
Match details
Working Paper No. G-171 Growth and structural change in the Vietnamese economy
1996-2003: A CGE analysis, by Tran Hoang Nhi and James A. Giesecke (abstract and download) is now available
Working Paper No. G-170 The Macroeconomic, Industrial and Distributional Effects of
Removing Tariffs in Bangladesh, by Serajul Hoque (abstract
and download) is now available