29 March 2006
Brisbane may have the best draw of the season, but Adelaide will finish at the top of the AFL ladder and Carlton will keep the wooden spoon, Monash University statistician Dr Michael Bailey has predicted.
|
| Dr Michael Bailey. |
Dr Bailey has used information from all AFL (and VFL) matches played in the past 100 years -- 12,800 games -- to work out how the 16 teams will fare as the 2006 season kicks off this week.
Using features including home-ground advantage, distance travelled by the opposition, familiarity with the venue and the overall quality of the two competing teams, Dr Bailey has assessed who is most likely to finish in the top four, the top eight and at the top of the ladder at the end of the season.
Dr Bailey said Hawthorn, by selling its extra home game to Brisbane, had given itself just a 40 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight compared with Brisbane's 64 per cent chance.
Adelaide had a 90.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, a 68.4 per cent chance of finishing in the top four and a 24.7 per cent chance of winning the minor premiership.
St Kilda should also fare well with a 21 per cent chance of finishing on top of the ladder and an 87 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, he said.
Last year's premiers, the Sydney Swans, looked set to finish fifth on the ladder, with a nine per cent chance of finishing on top and a 73 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
Dr Bailey has used this method to predict team results for the past eight seasons, regularly predicting the final spot of at least six of the top eight teams. It is based on a games simulation model, which predicts games winners in almost 70 per cent of matches.
For more information contact Ms Diane Squires, Media Communications Office, on 9905 9315 or 0417 603 400. A list of how all teams should fare is available.
| 
