31 January 2006
The US-led forces could be more effective in suppressing terrorist attacks in Iraq if they used appropriate forecasting techniques to predict the actions of disaffected groups, a Monash University researcher has found.
Senior Research Fellow in Monash's Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Dr Kesten Green, found forecasting experts who didn't use formal methods of predicting protagonists' responses in conflict situations were no better than students in predicting outcomes.
"Without formal forecasting techniques, experts and students alike made predictions of protagonists' reactions that were little better than chance," he said.
"In most situations, both groups were accurate only for 30 per cent of their predictions."
Dr Green said although he could not determine which forecasting methods were used for the war in Iraq, forecasts in such situations were typically made by experts without formal forecasting procedures.
His research showed that role-playing simulations were more accurate than statistics or experts' predictions in predicting decisions in conflict situations.
Dr Green said one method of forecasting, a type of role-playing called simulated interaction, produced predictions that were much more accurate than experts' results.
"We used groups of male and female undergraduate students to play the roles of middle-aged male business and political leaders in eight real conflict situations.
"We were amazed by the results - they made the same decisions as the real protagonists in 62 per cent of the simulations.
"Predictions were even more accurate when 10 or more individual forecasts were combined, in which case predictions were correct for seven - 88 per cent - of the conflicts.
"Unfortunately we were unable to test this method with experts, but it is possible their knowledge would make predictions even more accurate.
"President Reagan used role-playing prior to meetings with President Gorbachev, which allowed him to assess how Gorbachev would respond to different approaches. The meetings went well for both parties and this can be attributed to the use of formal forecasting," Dr Green said.
For further information contact Dr Green on +64 4 976 3282 or +64 21 456 516 or Ms Natasha Whalley, Media Communications on +61 3 9905 9201 or 0437 458 457.
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