16 September 2005
Mathematical modelling at Monash University reveals this year's Brownlow Medal tipping, which favours West Coast captain Ben Cousins, may be on the money.
The modelling, by statistician Dr Michael Bailey from the Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, shows Cousins is the clear favourite.
Dr Bailey predicts Cousins will poll at least 23 votes and should have the medal sewn up by round 16, after being among the leading seven players on the ground in his first 15 appearances.
But Dr Bailey warns that there is very little to separate the next nine players.
"Sydney forward Barry Hall has not polled as many Brownlow votes as expected in the past, but the transition from full-forward to centre half-forward should see him poll more votes this year," he says.
"On seven occasions the modelling shows Hall ranked as the leading player on the ground and rated in the top five a further six times."
Dr Bailey says the only upset may come from Western Bulldogs midfielder Scott West, but he believes it is unlikely West will beat Cousins.
"West has had a remarkably consistent year. After a slow start to the season, he ranked in the leading nine players on the field in 16 of the past 18 matches. He has the potential to finish ahead of Cousins, but it 's unlikely he will as he is only ranked as the leading player on three occasions and in the top three a further five times.''
Other players who should do well include Mark Ricciuto, who is ineligible due to suspension, Brett Kirk, Matthew Pavlich, Brent Harvey, Luke Hodge, Simon Goodwin and Nick Dal Santo.
Dr Bailey's predictive modelling uses information from the past eight seasons. The model identifies and weighs 25 variables relating to the prediction of Brownlow medal votes.
Using the model, he says it is possible to accurately predict the vote tally for more than 70 per cent of the 640 players to within one vote of their actual total and more than 90 per cent of players to within three votes.
For more information contact Dr Michael Bailey on +613 9903 0574, or Ms Diane Squires in Media Communications on +613 9905 9315 or 0417 603 400.
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