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19 September 2008
Australia's foremost expert on Brownlow Medal statistics, Monash University senior statistician Dr Michael Bailey predicts that the 2008 Brownlow count might well be topped by an ineligible player for the first time since Chris Grant in 1997.
Dr Bailey has a Masters in Statistics and is the only person awarded a PhD for work in predicting Brownlow medal winners. He said Hawthorn bad boys, Sam Mitchell or Lance Franklin could top the leader board despite both being unable to win. Whilst neither player missed any matches through suspension in 2008, Mitchell is ineligible following a tripping charge against Melbourne in Round 9 and Franklin a rough conduct charge against Adelaide in Round 12.
"Sam Mitchell, despite being controversially omitted this year from All Australian selection, is a proven favourite with the umpires and finished fourth in 2007 with 21 votes," Dr Bailey said. "He has had an even better year in 2008 and is ranked in the top three players on the ground on 12 separate occasions," Dr Bailey said.
"Whilst full-forwards traditionally do not poll well, the enigmatic Franklin could well be the exception. Lance Franklin has captured the hearts and minds of the general public and is clearly the most improved player in the competition. If the umpires watch the big screen as much as Buddy does, he is sure to poll well," he said. Dr Bailey uses match and player information from every home and away match played in the past 11 AFL seasons to identify and weight 25 statistically significant predictors that are related to the number of votes polled per game.
"The highest ranked player for each match, as graded by the model, has a 43 per cent chance of polling 3-votes, but a 75 per cent chance of polling a 3, 2 or a 1-vote," he said. "When all matches for the season are aggregated, this modelling approach will consistently identify eight of the top 10 candidates for the Brownlow each season, and the leading player has won six of the past 11 Brownlow medals".
With the vast majority of votes going to players from the winning team (91 per cent of 3-votes, 82 per cent of 2-votes and 72 per cent of 1-votes), Dr Bailey said it will be of little surprise that the actual winner of the Brownlow will come from Geelong.
"With six best on ground performances apiece, the trio of Jimmy Bartel, Joel Corey and Gary Ablett could raffle the coveted medal between them. While Ablett is the nominal bookmaker favourite, from a statistical perspective he has less probability of winning than either Bartel or Corey as he has played fewer good games," Dr Bailey said.
Other contenders to figure prominently include perennial vote-catcher Brent Harvey and Bulldogs midfielder Adam Cooney.
For more information contact michael.bailey@med.monash.edu.au or Ms Samantha Blair, Media and Communications on: +61 3 9903 4841 or 0439 013 951.
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