29 March 2007
Brisbane may have the best draw of the season, but Adelaide will finish at the top of the AFL ladder and Kangaroos are pressing for the wooden spoon, Monash University statistician Dr Michael Bailey has predicted.
Dr Bailey has used information from all AFL (and VFL) matches played in the past 100 years -- 12,800 games -- to work out how the 16 teams will fare as the 2007 season kicks off this weekend.
Using features including home-ground advantage, distance travelled by the opposition, familiarity with the venue and the overall quality of the two competing teams, Dr Bailey has assessed who is most likely to finish in the top four, the top eight and at the top of the ladder at the end of the season.
Dr Bailey said Adelaide had a 92.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, a 70.2 per cent chance of finishing in the top four and a 24.3 per cent chance of winning the minor premiership.
Sydney should also fare well with a 19.3 per cent chance of finishing on top of the ladder and a 90.1 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, he said.
Last year's premiers, West Coast, looked set to finish fifth on the ladder, with a 10 per cent chance of finishing on top and an 84 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
Dr Bailey has used this method to predict team results for the past 10 seasons, regularly predicting the final spot of at least six of the top eight teams.
A statistician for the Monash department of Epidemiology and Preventive medicine for the past 10 years, Dr Bailey has completed an honours degree and masters degree in statistics, and has written a PhD detailing a statistical approach to predicting sporting outcomes.
For more information contact Steve Pogonowski, Media Communications Office, on 9905 1253.
A list of how all teams should fare is available.
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