20 September 2006
This year's Brownlow Medal is likely follow the AFL Premiership Cup outside Victoria and be awarded to a non-Victorian player, predicts the Monash academic known as 'Dr Brownlow'.
Statistician Dr Michael Bailey said this year's field could be narrowed down to just four players -- only one of whom is Victorian.
"While over 500 AFL players are eligible to win, the field for the 2006 Brownlow Medal can effectively be narrowed down to Adam Goodes of the Sydney Swans, Chris Judd of the West Coast Eagles, Scott West of the Western Bulldogs and Simon Goodwin of Adelaide," he said.
Dr Bailey gives Goodes, Judd and West about one chance in four of winning, with Goodwin assigned about a one in eight chance of winning on Monday night, 25 September.
"In what should be a close finish, I expect Judd, West and Goodwin to juggle the leader position for most of the night with bookmaker favourite, Adam Goodes, figuring prominently toward the end of the count," Dr Bailey said.
"The key to Goodes' success will lie in the number of votes he obtains from the first half of the season. While he is unlikely to poll in any of the first five rounds, he has voting opportunities in rounds six to 11. If, at the half-way stage of the count he is within one vote of the lead, he should win." Dr Bailey said.
Dr Bailey, who has worked in the university's Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine for 10 years, is the only person awarded a PhD for work on predicting the Brownlow Medal winner.
Using data from past seasons, Dr Bailey's predictive statistical model identifies and weighs 25 variables relating to the prediction of Brownlow medal votes. He uses the model to accurately predict the vote tally for more than 70 per cent of the 500 players to within one vote of their actual total and more than 90 per cent of players to within three votes.
Dr Bailey has successfully used this approach to identify the leading contenders in each Brownlow competition for the past six years. Last year he successfully predicted West Coast Eagles player Ben Cousins would win the Brownlow.
For more information contact Dr Michael Bailey on 0400 311163, or Ms Robyn Anns, Media Communications, on +6 13 9905 9317 or 0417 568 781.
| 
