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International expert discusses Europe's future

23 August 2006

At his Monash lecture, Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas said life within the EU looked good for at least the next couple of decades, but the EU would see an increase in geopolitical irrelevance over time and was probably unsustainable in the long term.

Director of the Chatham House Royal Institute of International Affairs Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas this week visited Monash to deliver a seminar on the future of Europe.

Chatham House is one of the world's leading organisations for the analysis of international issues. It is membership-based and aims to help individuals and organisations be at the forefront of developments in an ever-changing and increasingly complex world.

Professor Bulmer-Thomas, who is also a professor emeritus at the University of London, discussed the deep sense of pessimism within and outside of Europe regarding the future.

"Although there is much truth in the pessimism, it is important to stress the positives," he said. "The EU will continue to grow and could have 35 members by 2020; it is the world's largest importer, it is rich and likely to remain so, and it is still seen as a popular club to join.

"This is an impressive list, but it is noteworthy what it omits. On the economic side, all foreign investment decisions and almost all debt decisions are bilateral, not EU-wide. On the political front, the EU plays no role in state-building in either Afghanistan or Iraq and has no role to play in the resolution of the North Korea crisis."

"Looking to the future, the EU will be unable to increase its political or security role by much and will continue to have trouble thinking strategically."

Professor Bulmer-Thomas said the EU struggled to think strategically about China, which was a problem.

"It's difficult to get the heads of 25 member countries to agree on an issue, which is often a serious obstacle to strategic thinking about areas outside the EU," he said.

Professor Bulmer-Thomas's visit to Monash was co-sponsored by the Centre for Increasing Returns and Economic Organisation and the Monash Institute for the Study of Global Movements.