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Early spring? Lock it in

7 October 2009

Dr Malcolm Clark

An international study has predicted the effect global warming will have on the Earth's plant life.

The study, led by Dr Malcolm Clark from the School of Mathematical Sciences and Professor Roy Thompson from the University of Edinburgh, predicts that some plants will flower up to 50 days earlier by the year 2080.

They investigated the responses of 79 species of plants to air temperatures by examining old records from Edinburgh's Royal Botanic Garden and also climate records.

Using this data they established the relationship between air temperature and first flowering date and have used their new statistical model to predict likely changes in spring flowering in Scotland based on three potential global warming scenarios.

They predict that spring flowering will begin approximately 11 days early for every one degree Celsius that the climate warms. For an increasingly oceanic climate (greater winter than summer warming) their model predicts shifts in the botanical season ranging between 16 days at the start of spring and 12 days at the end of spring. For an increasingly continental climate, predictions range between seven days at the start of spring and 11 days at the end of spring.

"Although the study is based on plant life in Scotland, our phenological models apply across regions spanning hundreds of thousands of square kilometres," Dr Clark said.

Using their results Dr Clark and Professor Thompson have constructed a global map demonstrating the ‘desynchronisation' of plant and animal life in the year 2080.

The map shows the botanical calendar of maritime climates including Western Europe, the American Atlantic coast, New Zealand, Chile and North Africa will move out of sync with the seasons. As a result temperature-sensitive plants will flower up to 50 days earlier that now.