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Paper Title:
A comparison of three
cohorts of driver crashes and the effect of traffic infringements
and convictions on novice driver crash involvement
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Authors:
Peter G. Palamara; Matthew
Legge; Mark R. Stevenson
Abstract:
The objectives of this
study were to (i) describe and compare the traffic infringements,
convictions and road crash patterns of 17 year old drivers first
licensed in 1997 with two cohorts of drivers first licensed at age
17 in 1992 (5 years experience) and 1987 (10 years experience),
and (ii) to model the effects of licensing, infringement and conviction
histories on crash involvement for the 17 year old drivers first
licensed in 1997. The licensing records for 17 year olds obtaining
a probationary motor car drivers' license in Western Australia,
1997, were obtained and linked with traffic infringement, conviction,
and crash data for 36 months post-licensing. The same linkages were
performed for the years 1997-2000 for the two cohorts of drivers
with 5 and 10 years experience as at 1997. For the modelling of
the 17-year old 1997 cohort group, crashes were first categorised
using set criteria as either speed or alcohol related. The analyses
aim to identify which probationary drivers present a higher risk
of crash involvement and to what extent prior traffic offences and
licensing history predict involvement in speed and alcohol related
crashes. Modelling of these effects is currently being undertaken.
The paper will conclude with a discussion of the implications of
the results for the development of policy at both the pre-licensing
and probationary licensing level in relation to the Western Australian
Road Safety Strategy.
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