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Paper Title:
Development of an index
to measure Police traffic enforcement effectiveness
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Authors:
Kathy Diamantopoulou,
Max Cameron
Abstract:
The aim of the research
was to develop a procedure that would measure traffic enforcement
outcome levels for each Victoria Police Region. The development
of this measure of effectiveness, referred to as the Police Effectiveness
Index, was achieved using structural time-series regression modelling
techniques. Relationships were developed that connected monthly
crashes in each of the five Police Regions with monthly variations
in variables representing exposure, enforcement activity and other
factors for 1989-1997. Crash and enforcement data were obtained
from the Victoria Police. The models developed for each Region revealed
the relative contribution of an increase in each enforcement operation
to reducing the risk of casualty crashes. The reductions were found
after the effects of exposure changes and other factors had been
accounted for.
A monthly index for each
Region was developed for January-December 1998. There was some variation
found in the monthly indices both between and within Regions. Relative
to the previous year, 1997, the Police performed better than expected
on average during the first quarter of 1998, but decreased their
performance for the rest of the year.
The value of the index
to Police is that it specifies which enforcement operations Police
should increase their resources per Region to reduce the risk of
casualty crash. The index also allows for the assessment and comparison
of the effect on road safety of different enforcement activities
both within and among Police Regions. The application of a relatively
new statistical analysis technique, structural time-series modelling,
has offered increased power and flexibility in the modelling of
crashes compared to traditional multivariate regression methods.
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